Closing spread
PHI -13.5
Total
47
Model margin
+5.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.053
- 41.4%Success rate47.0%
- -0.076EPA / dropback+0.077
- -0.078EPA / rush+0.010
- 7.8%Explosive rate12.1%
- -5.82CPOE+0.41
- 32.0%Third-down rate42.0%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.38Points / drive1.91
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 21/40 | 315 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 23 | 62 | 2.7 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 13 | 146 | 2 |
| Andre Roberts | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/34 | 128 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 79 | 9.9 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.17