2011 · Week 10

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

21·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -13.5

Total

47

Model margin

+5.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapEagles
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.053
  • 41.4%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback+0.077
  • -0.078EPA / rush+0.010
  • 7.8%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -5.82CPOE+0.41
  • 32.0%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.91
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–PHI
ARIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:26629Turnover on downs0–0
ARIQ1 10:23725Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 6:0530Punt0–0
ARIQ1 4:5831Punt0–0
PHIQ1 4:0330Punt0–0
ARIQ1 3:37549Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 1:29425Punt0–0
ARIQ2 14:4962Punt0–0
PHIQ2 12:26427Punt0–0
ARIQ2 10:1925Opp touchdown0–7
ARIQ2 9:351069Touchdown7–7
PHIQ2 4:481165Touchdown7–14
ARIQ2 0:1710End of half7–14
PHIQ3 15:00625Punt7–14
ARIQ3 10:4947Punt7–14
PHIQ3 8:0235Punt7–14
ARIQ3 6:0631Punt7–14
PHIQ3 5:24642Turnover7–14
ARIQ3 2:27631Punt7–14
PHIQ4 14:52416Punt7–14
ARIQ4 13:18984Touchdown14–14
PHIQ4 9:18419Punt14–14
ARIQ4 7:4533Turnover14–14
PHIQ4 6:5938Field goal14–17
ARIQ4 5:061187Touchdown21–17
PHIQ4 1:53728Turnover21–17
ARIQ4 0:3300End of half21–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton21/4031532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells23622.70
John Skelton4153.80
Andre Roberts11212.00
LaRod Stephens-Howling1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald7131462
Andre Roberts47550
LaRod Stephens-Howling22390
Jeff King45260
Early Doucet24241
Chester Taylor13170
Chansi Stuckey1280
Jim Dray0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick16/3412802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy14815.81
Mike Vick8799.90
Ronnie Brown144.00
Dion Lewis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek47530
Steve Smith510470
LeSean McCoy35120
Jeremy Maclin2660
Jason Avant1120
Clay Harbor0100
Riley Cooper0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.17