Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/31 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bush | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Kahlil Bell | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kyle Adams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.