Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutMatt ConrathDTKnee· DNP
- OutMatt DanielsSHamstring· DNP
- OutRodger SaffoldTKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulMichael BrockersDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBrit MillerRBThigh· DNP
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableWayne HunterTAnkle· Full
Bears
- OutMatt ForteRBAnkle· DNP
- DNPBrian UrlacherLBCoach's Decision
- ProbableJulius PeppersDEFoot· Full
Win probability
- Bears
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 37 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 10:41 | 8 | 13 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 5:23 | 11 | 40 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 0:16 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 14:51 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 11:59 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 8:57 | 14 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:56 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 0:22 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q3 12:23 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 11:09 | 9 | 39 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| CHI | Q3 6:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–10 |
| LA | Q3 4:27 | 6 | -10 | Punt | 6–10 |
| CHI | Q3 0:29 | 12 | 71 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| LA | Q4 9:45 | 4 | 19 | Opp touchdown | 6–20 |
| LA | Q4 9:06 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–20 |
| CHI | Q4 6:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–20 |
| LA | Q4 5:13 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 6–20 |
| CHI | Q4 4:11 | 4 | 34 | Field goal | 6–23 |
| LA | Q4 2:18 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 6–23 |
| CHI | Q4 1:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/31 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bush | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Kahlil Bell | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kyle Adams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.