Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play-0.115
- 41.6%Success rate40.0%
- +0.019EPA / dropback-0.106
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.134
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.17CPOE-5.09
- 34.3%Third-down rate28.8%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.71Points / drive0.96
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 8-7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/31 | 244 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 26 | 82 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 48 | 48.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 9 | 117 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Armon Binns | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 23/34 | 186 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Blackmon | 6 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Laurent Robinson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Elliott | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.92