2012 · Week 4

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

27·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

JAX -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.002EPA / play-0.115
  • 41.6%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback-0.106
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.134
  • 6.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.17CPOE-5.09
  • 34.3%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.71Points / drive0.96
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. JAX are 9-7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:005-5Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:0923Turnover0–0
CINQ1 12:211364Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 6:101377Touchdown3–7
CINQ2 13:3339Punt3–7
JAXQ2 11:58414Punt3–7
CINQ2 9:59963Touchdown10–7
JAXQ2 6:163-2Punt10–7
JAXQ2 4:493-3Punt10–7
JAXQ2 3:2500Punt10–7
CINQ2 3:17660Touchdown17–7
JAXQ2 1:11519Punt17–7
CINQ2 0:0400End of half17–7
CINQ3 15:00979Turnover17–7
JAXQ3 10:591377Field goal17–10
CINQ3 3:04880Touchdown24–10
JAXQ4 13:5110Turnover24–10
CINQ4 13:3930Field goal27–10
JAXQ4 12:3832Punt27–10
CINQ4 11:3436Punt27–10
JAXQ4 9:55628Punt27–10
CINQ4 7:0236Punt27–10
JAXQ4 4:4745Turnover on downs27–10
CINQ4 3:43415End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/3124421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis26823.20
Cedric Peerman14848.00
Andy Dalton650.81
Brian Leonard133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green691171
Jermaine Gresham55470
Andrew Hawkins33390
Brian Leonard11130
BenJarvus Green-Ellis23120
Orson Charles11100
Marvin Jones1250
Armon Binns0500

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert23/3418611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew13382.90
Blaine Gabbert3196.30
Rashad Jennings2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Blackmon610480
Maurice Jones-Drew55420
Marcedes Lewis33321
Laurent Robinson11190
Mike Thomas1290
Cecil Shorts1580
Kevin Elliott1350
Rashad Jennings11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.6%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.92