2012 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

20·13

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.011EPA / play-0.004
  • 42.1%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.131
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -2.66CPOE-2.29
  • 37.4%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.65
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
MINQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 14:4842Field goal7–3
MINQ1 13:06726Punt7–3
DETQ1 9:09630Punt7–3
MINQ1 5:09724Field goal10–3
DETQ1 1:16620Punt10–3
MINQ2 13:101160Field goal13–3
DETQ2 8:141364Field goal13–6
MINQ2 1:4655Punt13–6
DETQ2 0:1614End of half13–6
DETQ3 15:00416Opp touchdown20–6
DETQ3 13:09540Punt20–6
MINQ3 10:33518Punt20–6
DETQ3 8:0235Punt20–6
MINQ3 6:5637Punt20–6
DETQ3 5:38426Turnover20–6
MINQ3 4:221038Missed field goal20–6
DETQ4 13:151032Turnover on downs20–6
MINQ4 9:48518Punt20–6
DETQ4 6:081271Touchdown20–13
MINQ4 2:56531Punt20–13
DETQ4 1:42931Turnover on downs20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder16/2611100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson211024.90
Percy Harvin3124.00
Toby Gerhart382.70
Christian Ponder155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Simpson45500
Percy Harvin36220
Adrian Peterson44200
Toby Gerhart1180
Kyle Rudolph2580
Michael Jenkins1440
John Carlson11-10

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford30/5131900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mikel Leshoure13262.00
Matthew Stafford4143.51
Nate Burleson188.00
Titus Young155.00
Joique Bell122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joique Bell68720
Brandon Pettigrew79670
Calvin Johnson512540
Nate Burleson58510
Mikel Leshoure45370
Titus Young13170
Tony Scheffler13160
Keiland Williams1150
Ryan Broyles0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.66