Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.004
- 42.1%Success rate45.2%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.131
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- -2.66CPOE-2.29
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.91Points / drive1.65
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 16/26 | 111 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 30/51 | 319 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Leshoure | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 6 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 7 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 12 | 54 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.66