Closing spread
PHI -1.5
Total
46
Model margin
-0.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.073
- 46.8%Success rate42.7%
- +0.142EPA / dropback-0.006
- -0.000EPA / rush-0.208
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.81CPOE+0.51
- 41.8%Third-down rate37.1%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 2.27Points / drive1.18
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/42 | 309 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domenik Hixon | 6 | 11 | 114 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 9 | 13 | 109 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Andre Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 19/30 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 23 | 123 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 9 | 99 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.55