2012 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

17·19

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -1.5

Total

46

Model margin

-0.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • +0.086EPA / play-0.073
  • 46.8%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback-0.006
  • -0.000EPA / rush-0.208
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +0.81CPOE+0.51
  • 41.8%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.18
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
NYGQ1 15:00611Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:0435Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:31414Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:35737Punt0–0
NYGQ1 6:14822Punt0–0
PHIQ1 2:54835Punt0–0
NYGQ2 14:141043Punt0–0
PHIQ2 9:1339Punt0–0
NYGQ2 7:4236Punt0–0
PHIQ2 6:041165Touchdown0–7
NYGQ2 1:47981Field goal3–7
PHIQ2 0:0500End of half3–7
PHIQ3 15:00873Field goal3–10
NYGQ3 9:55857Touchdown10–10
PHIQ3 5:28750Field goal10–13
NYGQ3 2:07539Turnover10–13
PHIQ4 14:491074Field goal10–16
NYGQ4 9:25583Touchdown17–16
PHIQ4 6:451175Field goal17–19
NYGQ4 1:491010Missed field goal17–19
PHIQ4 0:0800End of half17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/4230921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw13393.00
Andre Brown5142.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Domenik Hixon6111140
Victor Cruz9131091
Ahmad Bradshaw34380
Ramses Barden24360
Bear Pascoe1261
Andre Brown1140
Martellus Bennett1320
David Wilson0100
Rueben Randle0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick19/3024110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy231235.30
Mike Vick6498.20
Bryce Brown451.30
Damaris Johnson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson69991
Brent Celek45570
Jason Avant22300
LeSean McCoy34170
Damaris Johnson11170
Jeremy Maclin1370
Clay Harbor1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.55