Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
-1.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutShareece WrightCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableDemorrio WilliamsLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJared GaitherTBack· Full
- QuestionableNate KaedingKGroin· Limited
- ProbableAntwan BarnesLBKnee· Full
- ProbableQuentin JammerCBHand· Full
Chiefs
- OutKevin BossTEHead· DNP
- DoubtfulPeyton HillisRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony ToribioDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDevon WylieWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableDexter McClusterWRElbow· Limited
- QuestionableDwayne BoweWRGroin· Limited
- QuestionableGlenn DorseyDECalf· DNP
- QuestionableKendrick LewisSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableSteve BreastonWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableRyan LiljaGBack· Limited
- ProbableJake O'ConnellTEKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:04 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:39 | 4 | 22 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| KC | Q1 6:26 | 1 | -11 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:12 | 2 | 5 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| KC | Q1 5:28 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:44 | 7 | 59 | Punt | 17–0 |
| KC | Q2 13:51 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LAC | Q2 11:56 | 5 | 42 | Field goal | 20–0 |
| KC | Q2 8:09 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 20–0 |
| LAC | Q2 8:02 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 20–0 |
| KC | Q2 7:28 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 20–6 |
| LAC | Q2 5:09 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 20–6 |
| KC | Q2 3:04 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 27–6 |
| KC | Q2 2:51 | 9 | 48 | Turnover | 27–6 |
| LAC | Q2 0:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–6 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| LAC | Q3 8:40 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 27–13 |
| KC | Q3 6:56 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 27–13 |
| LAC | Q3 6:05 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 27–13 |
| KC | Q3 4:06 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 27–13 |
| LAC | Q3 2:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 27–13 |
| KC | Q3 0:18 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 27–13 |
| LAC | Q4 13:25 | 9 | 49 | Touchdown | 34–13 |
| KC | Q4 7:54 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 34–20 |
| LAC | Q4 5:29 | 8 | 53 | Field goal | 37–20 |
| KC | Q4 1:56 | 7 | 43 | End of half | 37–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 24/42 | 251 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Cyrus Gray | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 7 | 12 | 108 | 1 |
| Jon Baldwin | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Steve Maneri | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.