Closing spread
SEA -2
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Seahawks
- DoubtfulJohn MoffittGKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony McCoyTEGroin· Limited
- QuestionableJaye HowardDTFoot· DNP
- QuestionableLeRoy HillLBCalf· DNP
- ProbableBreno GiacominiTPectoral· Full
- ProbableByron MaxwellCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableDoug BaldwinWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableGreg ScruggsDEWrist· Full
- ProbableJason JonesDEKnee· Full
Rams
- OutMatt DanielsSHamstring· DNP
- OutRodger SaffoldTKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulMatt ConrathDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableMichael BrockersDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableWayne HunterTKnee· DNP
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:45 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q1 4:59 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 1:59 | 5 | 62 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q2 14:06 | 3 | 23 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 12:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q2 11:13 | 7 | 30 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 7:23 | 14 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 1:11 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:34 | 2 | 16 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| SEA | Q3 13:46 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| LA | Q3 12:43 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–16 |
| SEA | Q3 11:25 | 12 | 80 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| LA | Q3 4:10 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–16 |
| SEA | Q3 1:48 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 13–16 |
| LA | Q4 13:03 | 14 | 74 | Field goal | 13–19 |
| SEA | Q4 6:07 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 13–19 |
| LA | Q4 3:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–19 |
| SEA | Q4 3:09 | 9 | 45 | Turnover | 13–19 |
| LA | Q4 1:00 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/25 | 160 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 118 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.20
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.