Closing spread
SEA -2
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/25 | 160 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 118 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.20
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.