Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. STL are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 28/50 | 289 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Williams | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
| William Powell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 15 | 92 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 5 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| William Powell | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ryan Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.