Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- QuestionableDan WilliamsDTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableDarnell DockettDTHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJim DrayTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJohn SkeltonQBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableLaRod Stephens-HowlingRBHip· Limited
- QuestionableMichael AdamsCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableParis LenonLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableQuentin GrovesLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTodd HeapTEKnee· Limited
- ProbableAdam SnyderGElbow· Limited
- ProbableAnthony ShermanRBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableO'Brien SchofieldLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableAdrian WilsonSAnkle· Full
- ProbableDave ZastudilPright Calf· Full
- ProbableJames SandersSCalf· Full
- ProbableRashad JohnsonSHamstring· Full
Rams
- OutEugene SimsDEHead· DNP
- OutRodger SaffoldTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableMatt ConrathDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMatt DanielsSHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableWayne HunterTKnee· Limited
- ProbableBrandon GibsonWRKnee· Full
- ProbableDanny AmendolaWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableWilliam HayesDEKnee· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 12:39 | 17 | 58 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:15 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q1 1:42 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:25 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 13:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:23 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 10:45 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 9:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 7:33 | 7 | 23 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 3:31 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 1:38 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 13:20 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q3 12:23 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 11:15 | 9 | 41 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q3 6:32 | 10 | 23 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 2:19 | 11 | 99 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| ARI | Q4 11:49 | 14 | 102 | Turnover on downs | 3–17 |
| LA | Q4 5:25 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–17 |
| ARI | Q4 3:13 | 6 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 3–17 |
| LA | Q4 2:09 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–17 |
| ARI | Q4 1:41 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| LA | Q4 1:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 28/50 | 289 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Williams | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
| William Powell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 15 | 92 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 5 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| William Powell | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ryan Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.