2012 · Week 5

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

17·13

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

45

Model margin

+5.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBengals
  • -0.049EPA / play-0.002
  • 42.9%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.019
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.034
  • 7.9%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -2.89CPOE+1.17
  • 37.7%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 58.9%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.71
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–6 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CIN @ MIA31–24CIN
2025 · W16CIN @ MIA45–21CIN
2022 · W4MIA @ CIN15–27CIN
2020 · W13CIN @ MIA7–19MIA
2019 · W16CIN @ MIA35–38MIA
2018 · W5MIA @ CIN17–27CIN
2016 · W4MIA @ CIN7–22CIN
2013 · W9CIN @ MIA20–22MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CIN
MIAQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:183-5Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:5437Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 10:35856Turnover0–3
CINQ1 6:331367Field goal0–6
MIAQ1 0:1335Punt0–6
CINQ2 14:41722Punt0–6
MIAQ2 11:03963Touchdown7–6
CINQ2 6:54418Turnover7–6
MIAQ2 4:5049Turnover on downs7–6
CINQ2 2:49419Punt7–6
MIAQ2 1:1114End of half7–6
CINQ3 15:00422Turnover7–6
MIAQ3 13:12441Touchdown14–6
CINQ3 12:1832Punt14–6
MIAQ3 11:14622Field goal17–6
CINQ3 8:3539Punt17–6
MIAQ3 7:14638Missed field goal17–6
CINQ3 4:22957Touchdown17–13
MIAQ4 14:1531Punt17–13
CINQ4 12:38510Punt17–13
MIAQ4 10:34939Punt17–13
CINQ4 6:01657Missed field goal17–13
MIAQ4 3:0068Punt17–13
CINQ4 1:45413Turnover17–13
MIAQ4 1:2200End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill17/2622300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush19482.51
Daniel Thomas10292.91
Ryan Tannehill4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline45590
Davone Bess26490
Charles Clay35350
Anthony Fasano34280
Reggie Bush22240
Daniel Thomas1180

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton26/4323412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Scott5408.00
Andy Dalton4215.30
BenJarvus Green-Ellis9141.60
Andrew Hawkins155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green913651
Jermaine Gresham56600
Andrew Hawkins513470
Armon Binns46410
Brian Leonard22190
BenJarvus Green-Ellis1220
Brandon Tate0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.14