Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
45
Model margin
+5.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.049EPA / play-0.002
- 42.9%Success rate41.6%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.034
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.6%
- -2.89CPOE+1.17
- 37.7%Third-down rate34.3%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.37Points / drive1.71
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. CIN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/26 | 223 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/43 | 234 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Scott | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 9 | 13 | 65 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 5 | 13 | 47 | 0 |
| Armon Binns | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.14