2012 · Week 5

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

16·12

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPanthers
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.081
  • 45.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback+0.158
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.026
  • 11.2%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +5.50CPOE-1.55
  • 39.8%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.90
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CAR
CARQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
SEAQ1 14:02741Field goal3–0
CARQ1 10:2934Punt3–0
SEAQ1 8:52740Punt3–0
CARQ1 4:40737Punt3–0
SEAQ1 0:271165Field goal6–0
CARQ2 8:293-13Punt6–0
SEAQ2 7:29729Punt6–0
CARQ2 2:461262Field goal6–3
SEAQ2 0:0200End of half6–3
SEAQ3 15:0000Punt6–3
CARQ3 14:483-8Punt6–3
SEAQ3 13:1522Opp touchdown6–10
SEAQ3 12:26642Turnover6–10
CARQ3 9:39721Punt6–10
SEAQ3 6:05627Punt6–10
CARQ3 2:461-3Turnover6–10
SEAQ3 2:37527Touchdown13–10
CARQ3 0:3539Punt13–10
SEAQ4 14:00639Field goal16–10
CARQ4 10:271184Turnover on downs16–10
SEAQ4 3:477-1Safety16–12
CARQ4 0:592-6Turnover16–12
SEAQ4 0:3900End of half16–12

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/2522112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch21854.00
Russell Wilson5122.40
Ben Obomanu11111.00
Robert Turbin461.50
Golden Tate1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice56670
Zach Miller33590
Doug Baldwin34370
Golden Tate34311
Braylon Edwards11100
Marshawn Lynch1290
Robert Turbin2280
Anthony McCoy0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton12/2914100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton7426.00
Jonathan Stewart4164.00
DeAngelo Williams661.00
Louis Murphy133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell33440
Steve Smith413400
Greg Olsen23370
Jonathan Stewart24150
Louis Murphy1250
Ben Hartsock0100
DeAngelo Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.91