Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.081
- 45.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.158
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.026
- 11.2%Explosive rate11.0%
- +5.50CPOE-1.55
- 39.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.17Points / drive1.90
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/25 | 221 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 12/29 | 141 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 13 | 40 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.91