2011 · Week 16
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
43
Model margin
+2.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play-0.058
- 39.2%Success rate41.9%
- -0.073EPA / dropback-0.048
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.076
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- -5.80CPOE-1.12
- 38.8%Third-down rate36.9%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
- 1.60Points / drive1.48
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Webb | 4/5 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 8/13 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 11 | 109 | 9.9 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Joe Webb | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 26/41 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Royster | 19 | 132 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 6 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 5 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 4 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Terrence Austin | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45