2011 · Week 16

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

33·26

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

43

Model margin

+2.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.054EPA / play-0.058
  • 39.2%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback-0.048
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.076
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -5.80CPOE-1.12
  • 38.8%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.48
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–WAS
WASQ1 15:00624Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:11618Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:5034Turnover0–0
MINQ1 8:3432Field goal3–0
WASQ1 7:1138Punt3–0
MINQ1 5:481349Touchdown10–0
WASQ2 14:56765Touchdown10–7
MINQ2 10:46861Missed field goal10–7
WASQ2 5:361053Field goal10–10
MINQ2 1:02316End of half10–10
MINQ3 15:0032Punt10–10
WASQ3 13:1954Field goal10–13
MINQ3 10:40375Touchdown17–13
WASQ3 9:23743Touchdown17–20
MINQ3 5:57673Touchdown23–20
WASQ3 2:41989Field goal23–23
MINQ4 12:41672Touchdown30–23
WASQ4 10:06523Turnover30–23
MINQ4 7:32519Field goal33–23
WASQ4 4:05957Field goal33–26
MINQ4 1:2532Punt33–26
WASQ4 0:55427End of half33–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Webb4/58420
Christian Ponder8/136800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart111099.90
Percy Harvin4399.80
Adrian Peterson12383.21
Joe Webb5346.81
Christian Ponder4205.00
Lorenzo Booker210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin56651
Devin Aromashodu22360
Kyle Rudolph22231
Greg Camarillo12140
Adrian Peterson23140
Visanthe Shiancoe0100
Toby Gerhart0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman26/4128421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Evan Royster191326.90
Ryan Torain482.00
Brandon Banks111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney68771
Donte' Stallworth57591
Santana Moss410460
Terrence Austin33390
Evan Royster24150
Anthony Armstrong1160
Logan Paulsen1250
Ryan Torain2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.45