Closing spread
DAL -10.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.088
- 45.8%Success rate38.9%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- +4.58CPOE-5.47
- 43.2%Third-down rate36.1%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.23Points / drive1.27
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:44 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 7:48 | 13 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 1:30 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 0:02 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 13:22 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 11:10 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| CAR | Q2 6:57 | 3 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 5:38 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q2 1:56 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:32 | 9 | 36 | End of half | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 41 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q3 8:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–10 |
| CAR | Q3 5:56 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q3 3:46 | 10 | 34 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| CAR | Q4 14:10 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q4 13:14 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| CAR | Q4 8:17 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 20–10 |
| DAL | Q4 6:35 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–10 |
| CAR | Q4 4:54 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| DAL | Q4 3:01 | 4 | 24 | End of half | 20–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 28/42 | 257 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 15/28 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.19