2012 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

7·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.041
  • 45.2%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.29CPOE-0.76
  • 41.4%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.47
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
DETQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CHIQ1 14:02659Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 11:12418Punt0–7
CHIQ1 8:56620Punt0–7
DETQ1 5:593-1Punt0–7
CHIQ1 4:02524Field goal0–10
DETQ1 1:2339Punt0–10
CHIQ1 0:273-1Punt0–10
DETQ2 14:423-1Punt0–10
CHIQ2 13:161255Missed field goal0–10
DETQ2 6:3338Punt0–10
CHIQ2 5:123-3Punt0–10
DETQ2 3:54854Turnover0–10
CHIQ2 1:22411End of half0–10
CHIQ3 15:0034Punt0–10
CHIQ3 13:32624Field goal0–13
DETQ3 11:201378Turnover0–13
CHIQ3 5:17728Punt0–13
DETQ3 1:40524Punt0–13
CHIQ4 15:001067Punt0–13
DETQ4 8:473-1Punt0–13
CHIQ4 7:5933Punt0–13
DETQ4 6:241290Turnover0–13
CHIQ4 2:3936Punt0–13
DETQ4 2:13858Touchdown7–13
CHIQ4 0:3000End of half7–13

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/4626311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mikel Leshoure12635.30
Matthew Stafford3217.00
Joique Bell3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Titus Young68810
Ryan Broyles34511
Brandon Pettigrew56390
Calvin Johnson311340
Mikel Leshoure67200
Nate Burleson13160
Joique Bell34160
Tony Scheffler1360

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler16/3115010
Jason Campbell1/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte22964.40
Michael Bush6366.00
Jay Cutler33411.30
Jason Campbell155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall610811
Devin Hester36380
Earl Bennett36270
Matt Forte3540
Kellen Davis1230
Matt Spaeth0100
Kyle Adams0100
Michael Bush11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.24