Closing spread
CHI -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.041
- 45.2%Success rate39.6%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.29CPOE-0.76
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.4%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.65Points / drive1.47
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/46 | 263 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Leshoure | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titus Young | 6 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 3 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 11 | 34 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 6 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 16/31 | 150 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 10 | 81 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Adams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.24