Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.002
- 42.0%Success rate41.6%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.034
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- +0.59CPOE+1.17
- 41.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.66Points / drive1.71
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/37 | 278 | 1 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 17 | 122 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 8 | 96 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 6 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 8 | 15 | 52 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 14/28 | 105 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Whalen | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.68