Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutChris CarterLBHamstring· DNP
- OutIsaac RedmanRBAnkle· DNP
- OutMarcus GilbertTAnkle· DNP
- OutRashard MendenhallRBAchilles· DNP
- OutTroy PolamaluSCalf· DNP
- QuestionableMaurkice PounceyCKnee· Limited
- ProbableBrandon JohnsonLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableLawrence TimmonsLBFoot· Full
Bengals
- DoubtfulBrian LeonardRBRibs· DNP
- QuestionableArmon BinnsWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDre KirkpatrickCBKnee· Full
- DNPDontay MochLBNot Injury Related
- ProbableRoddrick MuckelroyLBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAndrew HawkinsWRBack· Full
- ProbableDevon StillDTShoulder· Full
- ProbableKevin ZeitlerGElbow· Full
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.002
- 42.0%Success rate41.6%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.034
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- +0.59CPOE+1.17
- 41.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.66Points / drive1.71
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 36 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q1 10:26 | 15 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q1 2:17 | 13 | 80 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| CIN | Q2 10:17 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 8:42 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| CIN | Q2 8:34 | 1 | 8 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| PIT | Q2 8:29 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| CIN | Q2 3:07 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| PIT | Q2 1:23 | 6 | 29 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| CIN | Q2 0:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–14 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q3 11:09 | 5 | 37 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| CIN | Q3 8:17 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–17 |
| PIT | Q3 7:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–17 |
| CIN | Q3 5:01 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–17 |
| PIT | Q3 3:58 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| CIN | Q4 14:16 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 24–17 |
| PIT | Q4 12:24 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 24–17 |
| CIN | Q4 8:41 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–17 |
| PIT | Q4 7:38 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 24–17 |
| CIN | Q4 5:29 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–17 |
| PIT | Q4 3:57 | 6 | 60 | End of half | 24–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/37 | 278 | 1 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 17 | 122 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 8 | 96 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 6 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 8 | 15 | 52 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 14/28 | 105 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Whalen | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.68