2012 · Week 7 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
NYG -6.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play+0.086
- 46.7%Success rate46.8%
- +0.233EPA / dropback+0.142
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.000
- 12.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- +4.84CPOE+0.81
- 35.5%Third-down rate41.8%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 2.11Points / drive2.27
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 20/28 | 258 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 22 | 120 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 9 | 89 | 9.9 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Paulsen | 4 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 6 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 4 | 67 | 2 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 26/40 | 337 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Andre Brown | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 7 | 11 | 131 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.00