2012 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

23·27

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

NYG -6.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • +0.137EPA / play+0.086
  • 46.7%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.233EPA / dropback+0.142
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.000
  • 12.8%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +4.84CPOE+0.81
  • 35.5%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.27
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00629Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:241788Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 2:131265Touchdown3–7
WASQ2 12:41880Touchdown10–7
NYGQ2 8:45963Field goal10–10
WASQ2 3:53555Field goal13–10
NYGQ2 1:49959Field goal13–13
WASQ2 0:0200End of half13–13
WASQ3 15:00420Punt13–13
NYGQ3 12:53510Punt13–13
WASQ3 10:40639Turnover13–13
NYGQ3 8:00535Turnover13–13
WASQ3 4:59642Turnover13–13
NYGQ3 1:42735Touchdown13–20
WASQ4 12:551151Turnover13–20
NYGQ4 7:1010Turnover13–20
WASQ4 7:0135Field goal16–20
NYGQ4 5:21621Punt16–20
WASQ4 2:59777Touchdown23–20
NYGQ4 1:32277Touchdown23–27
WASQ4 1:13323Turnover23–27
NYGQ4 0:3900End of half23–27

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III20/2825821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris221205.50
Robert Griffin III9899.90
Aldrick Robinson11414.00
Niles Paul1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Logan Paulsen46760
Leonard Hankerson68700
Santana Moss34672
Josh Morgan22160
Fred Davis11130
Alfred Morris22100
Niles Paul0100
Evan Royster1100
Aldrick Robinson0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning26/4033712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw12433.61
Andre Brown5173.41
Eli Manning242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz7111311
Martellus Bennett57790
Hakeem Nicks510530
Domenik Hixon34320
Ahmad Bradshaw45220
Andre Brown11170
Bear Pascoe0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.00