2012 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

30·9

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.049EPA / play-0.101
  • 42.9%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.139
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.054
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -2.89CPOE-5.39
  • 37.7%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 58.9%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.20
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
MIAQ1 15:00843Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 11:0200Punt3–0
MIAQ1 10:573-4Punt3–0
NYJQ1 9:2534Punt3–0
MIAQ1 7:4934Punt3–0
NYJQ1 6:28610Opp touchdown10–0
NYJQ1 3:5948Turnover10–0
MIAQ1 1:44632Touchdown17–0
NYJQ2 14:0839Punt17–0
MIAQ2 12:42522Punt17–0
NYJQ2 10:3732Punt17–0
MIAQ2 9:25644Field goal20–0
NYJQ2 6:5934Punt20–0
MIAQ2 4:4837Punt20–0
NYJQ2 2:43870Missed field goal20–0
MIAQ2 0:4300End of half20–0
NYJQ3 15:00734Field goal20–3
MIAQ3 11:53640Touchdown27–3
NYJQ3 8:46441Punt27–3
MIAQ3 7:09617Turnover27–3
NYJQ3 5:37517Turnover27–3
MIAQ3 3:4536Punt27–3
NYJQ3 2:24719Punt27–3
MIAQ4 15:0038Punt27–3
NYJQ4 12:591394Touchdown27–9
MIAQ4 7:20521Field goal30–9
NYJQ4 4:301551Turnover on downs30–9
MIAQ4 1:0500End of half30–9

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore11/1913110
Ryan Tannehill2/51800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush14594.20
Daniel Thomas15422.81
Matt Moore4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline46410
Marlon Moore11370
Jabar Gaffney12300
Davone Bess49280
Reggie Bush1160
Anthony Fasano1241
Daniel Thomas1230
Charles Clay0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez28/5428311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene15775.10
Mark Sanchez166.00
Jonathan Grimes155.00
Tim Tebow122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Clyde Gates711820
Dustin Keller711670
Jeremy Kerley512430
Chaz Schilens45291
Shonn Greene25290
Stephen Hill27290
Jonathan Grimes1140
Konrad Reuland0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.14