Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.049EPA / play-0.101
- 42.9%Success rate41.7%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- -2.89CPOE-5.39
- 37.7%Third-down rate36.9%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.37Points / drive1.20
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 11/19 | 131 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2/5 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Matt Moore | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 4 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 28/54 | 283 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Gates | 7 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 7 | 11 | 67 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 12 | 43 | 0 |
| Chaz Schilens | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.14