2012 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

29·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · open · matrixturf

Closing spread

NYG -1.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.086EPA / play+0.043
  • 46.8%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.000EPA / rush-0.133
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.81CPOE+3.18
  • 41.8%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.79
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
NYGQ1 15:00657Field goal3–0
DALQ1 11:53734Turnover3–0
NYGQ1 9:1138Field goal6–0
DALQ1 7:11310Turnover6–0
NYGQ1 5:42431Touchdown13–0
DALQ1 3:4134Punt13–0
NYGQ1 2:1735Punt13–0
NYGQ1 0:5142Field goal16–0
DALQ2 14:22314Opp touchdown23–0
DALQ2 13:0533Punt23–0
NYGQ2 11:3715Turnover23–0
DALQ2 11:2937Punt23–0
NYGQ2 10:38525Punt23–0
DALQ2 8:29872Touchdown23–7
NYGQ2 5:22624Punt23–7
DALQ2 2:37555Field goal23–10
NYGQ2 0:584-1Punt23–10
DALQ2 0:1300End of half23–10
DALQ3 15:001266Touchdown23–17
NYGQ3 9:1631Punt23–17
DALQ3 8:07859Touchdown23–24
NYGQ3 3:43631Turnover23–24
DALQ3 0:5431Punt23–24
NYGQ4 14:46870Field goal26–24
DALQ4 10:20718Turnover26–24
NYGQ4 6:40526Field goal29–24
DALQ4 3:311149Turnover29–24
NYGQ4 1:0339Punt29–24
DALQ4 0:44843End of half29–24

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning15/2919201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw22783.50
Andre Brown3217.01
Eli Manning133.00
David Wilson210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle22680
Hakeem Nicks47460
Martellus Bennett46290
Domenik Hixon33260
Victor Cruz28230
Ramses Barden0100
Andre Brown0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo36/6243714

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones13191.51
Tony Romo200.01
Phillip Tanner200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten18231670
Miles Austin9161330
Dez Bryant5111100
John Phillips33141
Phillip Tanner11130
Felix Jones0300
Kevin Ogletree0300
James Hanna0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.24