Closing spread
NYG -1.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.043
- 46.8%Success rate47.2%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.000EPA / rush-0.133
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.81CPOE+3.18
- 41.8%Third-down rate43.3%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 2.27Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 15/29 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 2 | 68 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 2 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 36/62 | 437 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
| Phillip Tanner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 18 | 23 | 167 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 9 | 16 | 133 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 11 | 110 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Phillip Tanner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.24