Closing spread
KC -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutKhalif BarnesTGroin· DNP
- OutShawntae SpencerCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableDave TollefsonDEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDesmond BryantDTElbow· Limited
- QuestionableKeenan ClaytonLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMatt ShaughnessyDEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableRichard GordonTEHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTravis GoethelLBBack· Limited
- ProbableJuron CrinerWRHip· Limited
- ProbableMichael MitchellSAnkle· Limited
- ProbableRichard SeymourDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableRod StreaterWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Groin· Limited
- ProbableAlex ParsonsCBack· Full
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEKnee· Full
- ProbableDarren McFaddenRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableMike GoodsonRBHip· Full
- ProbableMiles BurrisLBElbow· Full
- ProbableTommy KellyDTShoulder· Full
Chiefs
- QuestionableGlenn DorseyDECalf· Limited
- QuestionableJalil BrownCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableSteve ManeriTEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableDevon WylieWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableMatt CasselQBConcussion· Full
- ProbablePeyton HillisRBAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 14:44 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:34 | 7 | 76 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 9:51 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:35 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 3:28 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:27 | 8 | 23 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| KC | Q2 14:44 | 7 | 68 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| LV | Q2 10:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–3 |
| KC | Q2 8:46 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| LV | Q2 4:12 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 6–6 |
| LV | Q2 1:39 | 3 | 11 | Touchdown | 13–6 |
| KC | Q2 0:49 | 5 | 30 | End of half | 13–6 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–6 |
| LV | Q3 14:52 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 16–6 |
| KC | Q3 13:58 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 16–9 |
| LV | Q3 8:40 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 23–9 |
| KC | Q3 5:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 23–9 |
| LV | Q3 3:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 23–9 |
| KC | Q3 2:46 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 23–9 |
| LV | Q3 0:09 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 23–9 |
| KC | Q4 14:01 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 23–9 |
| LV | Q4 13:01 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 26–9 |
| KC | Q4 8:14 | 7 | 56 | Turnover | 26–9 |
| LV | Q4 4:58 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 26–9 |
| KC | Q4 3:09 | 3 | 22 | Touchdown | 26–16 |
| LV | Q4 2:27 | 5 | 36 | End of half | 26–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 20/30 | 218 | 1 | 1 |
| Brady Quinn | 2/4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 4 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 6 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Jake O'Connell | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.45
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-2.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.