Closing spread
KC -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 20/30 | 218 | 1 | 1 |
| Brady Quinn | 2/4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 4 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 6 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Jake O'Connell | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.45
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-2.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.