2009 · Week 9

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

20·32

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SEA -11

Total

42

Model margin

+3.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.169EPA / play-0.107
  • 39.2%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.183EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.150
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -6.85CPOE-1.58
  • 35.8%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
  • 1.11Points / drive1.38
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4SEA @ DET29–42DET
2023 · W2SEA @ DET37–31SEA
2022 · W4SEA @ DET48–45SEA
2021 · W17DET @ SEA29–51SEA
2018 · W8SEA @ DET28–14SEA
2016 · playoffsDET @ SEA6–26SEA
2015 · W4DET @ SEA10–13SEA
2012 · W8SEA @ DET24–28DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–SEA
DETQ1 15:001561Missed field goal0–0
SEAQ1 6:3210Turnover0–0
DETQ1 6:2317Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 6:18110Turnover7–0
DETQ1 6:06334Touchdown14–0
SEAQ1 5:1949Turnover on downs14–0
DETQ1 3:33725Field goal17–0
SEAQ1 0:431060Touchdown17–7
DETQ2 10:47514Turnover17–7
SEAQ2 8:321047Field goal17–10
DETQ2 3:00534Turnover17–10
SEAQ2 1:13855Field goal17–13
DETQ2 0:0200End of half17–13
SEAQ3 15:0032Punt17–13
DETQ3 13:2838Punt17–13
SEAQ3 12:10772Field goal17–16
DETQ3 9:24611Punt17–16
SEAQ3 5:36857Touchdown17–22
DETQ3 2:3246Turnover17–22
SEAQ3 0:541250Field goal17–25
DETQ4 10:09438Field goal20–25
SEAQ4 8:0435Punt20–25
DETQ4 6:46513Turnover20–25
SEAQ4 4:34730Punt20–25
DETQ4 2:03742Opp touchdown20–32
DETQ4 0:2217End of half20–32

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/4220325

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith13675.20
Aaron Brown4276.80
Maurice Morris4205.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Pettigrew78701
Casey Fitzsimmons611410
Bryant Johnson24351
Calvin Johnson29270
Maurice Morris23170
Kevin Smith2390
Will Heller0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck39/5132911
Seneca Wallace1/11500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones16362.31
Justin Forsett11414.00
Matt Hasselbeck155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julius Jones66780
Nate Burleson79750
Justin Forsett58450
John Carlson69420
T.J. Houshmandzadeh69341
Justin Griffith55330
Deion Branch33250
Deon Butler1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.58