Closing spread
SEA -11
Total
42
Model margin
+3.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.169EPA / play-0.107
- 39.2%Success rate40.9%
- -0.183EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- -6.85CPOE-1.58
- 35.8%Third-down rate34.0%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.11Points / drive1.38
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 52.1 points. SEA are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/42 | 203 | 2 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 13 | 67 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pettigrew | 7 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Casey Fitzsimmons | 6 | 11 | 41 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 2 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 39/51 | 329 | 1 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 16 | 36 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 6 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 6 | 9 | 34 | 1 |
| Justin Griffith | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58