2011 · Week 7

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB John Beck

20·33

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.102
  • 41.9%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.048EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.076EPA / rush+0.115
  • 8.9%Explosive rate12.3%
  • -1.12CPOE-0.04
  • 36.9%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 47.2%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.08
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CAR
CARQ1 15:001288Field goal0–3
WASQ1 7:31833Turnover0–3
CARQ1 4:4132Punt0–3
WASQ1 3:281354Field goal3–3
CARQ2 12:241182Field goal3–6
WASQ2 5:021040Field goal6–6
CARQ2 1:023-3Punt6–6
WASQ2 0:3623Turnover6–6
CARQ2 0:2137Field goal6–9
WASQ2 0:0200End of half6–9
WASQ3 15:00533Turnover on downs6–9
CARQ3 12:52253Touchdown6–16
WASQ3 12:17782Touchdown13–16
CARQ3 8:141080Touchdown13–23
WASQ3 2:1738Punt13–23
CARQ3 1:391485Touchdown13–30
WASQ4 8:131080Touchdown20–30
CARQ4 5:05412Punt20–30
WASQ4 3:51412Turnover20–30
CARQ4 3:1333Field goal20–33
WASQ4 1:5649Turnover on downs20–33
CARQ4 1:1200End of half20–33

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Beck22/3727911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower17885.20
John Beck3103.31
Roy Helu1-1-1.00
Ryan Torain2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Davis68801
Jabar Gaffney48680
Logan Paulsen22480
Terrence Austin36260
Niles Paul22250
Santana Moss22170
Anthony Armstrong1490
Roy Helu2260
Tim Hightower0100
Leonard Hankerson0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/2325610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart14684.91
Cam Newton10595.91
DeAngelo Williams10353.50
Steve Smith166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith791430
Brandon LaFell23391
Jeremy Shockey44320
Legedu Naanee33210
Greg Olsen1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.73
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.64