2011 · Week 7
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
CAR -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.102
- 41.9%Success rate44.8%
- -0.048EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.076EPA / rush+0.115
- 8.9%Explosive rate12.3%
- -1.12CPOE-0.04
- 36.9%Third-down rate38.7%
- 47.2%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.48Points / drive2.08
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beck | 22/37 | 279 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 |
| John Beck | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 6 | 8 | 80 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Terrence Austin | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/23 | 256 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 9 | 143 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.73
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.64