Closing spread
SD -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+6.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/29 | 181 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 8 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.