Closing spread
SD -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+6.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutBrady QuinnQBHead· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutNate EachusRBHead· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableGlenn DorseyDECalf· Limited
- QuestionableStanford RouttCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableSteve ManeriTEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTerrance CopperWRCalf· Limited
- ProbableDevon WylieWRHamstring· Full
Chargers
- DoubtfulEddie RoyalWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableChris CarrCBQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableRobert MeachemWRHamstring· DNP
- DNPRichard GoodmanWRHamstring
- ProbableJared GaitherTGroin· Full
- ProbableJonas MoutonLBHip· Full
- ProbableTakeo SpikesLBElbow· Full
- ProbableVaughn MartinDENeck· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 10:24 | 17 | 64 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 2:18 | 11 | 71 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| KC | Q2 9:10 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 2:51 | 9 | 62 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:14 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 12:29 | 3 | 3 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 11:31 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 7:09 | 9 | 75 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| LAC | Q3 0:53 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| KC | Q4 11:33 | 2 | -4 | Opp touchdown | 6–24 |
| KC | Q4 10:39 | 6 | 34 | Opp touchdown | 6–31 |
| KC | Q4 8:33 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| LAC | Q4 4:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–31 |
| LAC | Q4 1:57 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 13–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/29 | 181 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 8 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.