Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.109
- 42.1%Success rate45.2%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.005
- 9.7%Explosive rate11.2%
- -2.66CPOE+5.50
- 37.4%Third-down rate39.8%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.91Points / drive2.17
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 11/22 | 63 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 182 | 10.7 | 2 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Allen Reisner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 16/24 | 173 | 3 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1/1 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 26 | 124 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 6 | 28 | 2 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.50