2012 · Week 9

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

20·30

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -4.5

Total

38

Model margin

+5.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.109
  • 42.1%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.005
  • 9.7%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -2.66CPOE+5.50
  • 37.4%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.17
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SEA
MINQ1 15:00480Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 13:15519Punt7–0
MINQ1 11:0636Turnover7–0
SEAQ1 10:15317Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 8:52415Punt7–7
SEAQ1 7:20978Touchdown7–14
MINQ1 3:151256Touchdown14–14
SEAQ2 11:4649Punt14–14
MINQ2 9:14758Field goal17–14
SEAQ2 5:251375Touchdown17–20
MINQ2 0:44513End of half17–20
SEAQ3 15:0038Punt17–20
MINQ3 14:0266Punt17–20
SEAQ3 10:241169Touchdown17–27
MINQ3 4:09529Field goal20–27
SEAQ3 1:47730Punt20–27
MINQ4 13:43519Punt20–27
SEAQ4 11:49838Field goal20–30
MINQ4 6:2335Turnover20–30
SEAQ4 5:271144End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder11/226301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson1718210.72
Percy Harvin4246.00
Christian Ponder5234.60
Toby Gerhart11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Simpson12140
Allen Reisner11130
Adrian Peterson34110
Percy Harvin26100
Michael Jenkins2280
Rhett Ellison1140
Toby Gerhart1230
Devin Aromashodu0100
Kyle Rudolph0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson16/2417330
Sidney Rice1/12500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch261244.81
Russell Wilson9273.00
Golden Tate22110.50
Robert Turbin5214.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice44541
Zach Miller23470
Golden Tate46282
Marshawn Lynch22260
Robert Turbin1190
Doug Baldwin1360
Jermaine Kearse1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.50