2012 · Week 9

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

13·28

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

52

Model margin

+5.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSaints
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.094
  • 42.7%Success rate47.2%
  • -0.006EPA / dropback+0.160
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.039
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.51CPOE+0.89
  • 37.1%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
  • 1.18Points / drive2.17
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3PHI @ NO15–12PHI
2022 · W17NO @ PHI20–10NO
2021 · W11NO @ PHI29–40PHI
2020 · W14NO @ PHI21–24PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ NO14–20NO
2018 · W11PHI @ NO7–48NO
2015 · W5NO @ PHI17–39PHI
2013 · playoffsNO @ PHI26–24NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NO
PHIQ1 15:001429Punt0–0
NOQ1 7:55651Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 5:16552Opp touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 2:361086Field goal3–7
NOQ2 12:03776Touchdown3–14
PHIQ2 8:33737Punt3–14
NOQ2 4:59874Touchdown3–21
PHIQ2 1:1334Punt3–21
NOQ2 0:43415Punt3–21
PHIQ2 0:041-1End of half3–21
NOQ3 15:001171Turnover3–21
PHIQ3 9:31283Touchdown10–21
NOQ3 8:4200Field goal10–21
PHIQ3 8:3443Field goal13–21
NOQ3 7:001165Touchdown13–28
PHIQ3 1:20936Punt13–28
NOQ4 12:08511Punt13–28
PHIQ4 8:451471Turnover13–28
NOQ4 3:0339Punt13–28
PHIQ4 1:54947Turnover on downs13–28
NOQ4 0:0700End of half13–28

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick22/4127211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy191196.30
Mike Vick6538.80
Bryce Brown44912.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson371001
Jason Avant69560
Brent Celek59470
Jeremy Maclin24280
Clay Harbor34200
LeSean McCoy23140
Riley Cooper0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees21/2723920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory10484.81
Pierre Thomas6447.30
Mark Ingram7446.30
Travaris Cadet155.00
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham811721
Lance Moore22610
Marques Colston44461
Pierre Thomas23260
Mark Ingram22230
Devery Henderson1380
Chris Ivory1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

47.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.42