Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
52
Model margin
+5.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.094
- 42.7%Success rate47.2%
- -0.006EPA / dropback+0.160
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.51CPOE+0.89
- 37.1%Third-down rate43.1%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.18Points / drive2.17
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 22/41 | 272 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 119 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 7 | 100 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 6 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 21/27 | 239 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 8 | 11 | 72 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 2 | 61 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 4 | 46 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.42