Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play+0.100
- 45.5%Success rate47.9%
- +0.018EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.109EPA / rush+0.072
- 8.6%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.61CPOE+2.05
- 40.9%Third-down rate46.2%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 1.59Points / drive2.43
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/22 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 6 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 18/32 | 274 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 9 | 13 | 115 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 9 | 97 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28