Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.061
- 41.1%Success rate46.4%
- +0.003EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.147EPA / rush+0.025
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.5%
- -5.00CPOE+0.39
- 36.1%Third-down rate45.5%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 1.88Points / drive2.39
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 22/40 | 214 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 88 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Quan Smith | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 5 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Marquez Callaway | 1 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 13/24 | 147 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 16 | 94 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 3 |
| Jordan Howard | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyree Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.15