Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.080EPA / play-0.044
- 44.6%Success rate42.7%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.008
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.78CPOE-0.86
- 48.9%Third-down rate39.1%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.09Points / drive1.56
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/43 | 335 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 6 | 11 | 141 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 9 | 107 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 32/45 | 333 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Ryan Mathews | 8 | 73 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Huff | 4 | 5 | 78 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Jordan Matthews | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 7 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.28