2015 · Week 5

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

17·39

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapEagles
  • +0.080EPA / play-0.044
  • 44.6%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback-0.008
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.105
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.78CPOE-0.86
  • 48.9%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.56
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3PHI @ NO15–12PHI
2022 · W17NO @ PHI20–10NO
2021 · W11NO @ PHI29–40PHI
2020 · W14NO @ PHI21–24PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ NO14–20NO
2018 · W11PHI @ NO7–48NO
2013 · playoffsNO @ PHI26–24NO
2012 · W9PHI @ NO13–28NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00618Turnover on downs0–0
NOQ1 13:07616Punt0–0
PHIQ1 10:34968Turnover0–0
NOQ1 7:24880Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 3:351263Turnover7–0
NOQ2 14:1434Punt7–0
PHIQ2 13:28481Touchdown7–7
NOQ2 11:4337Punt7–7
PHIQ2 10:19839Turnover on downs7–7
NOQ2 6:05721Punt7–7
PHIQ2 2:3646Punt7–7
NOQ2 1:3323Turnover7–7
PHIQ2 1:12525Field goal7–10
NOQ2 0:1000End of half7–10
NOQ3 15:00972Field goal10–10
PHIQ3 11:121065Touchdown10–17
NOQ3 6:441-7Turnover10–23
PHIQ3 6:36113Touchdown10–23
NOQ3 6:31617Punt10–23
PHIQ3 4:00739Field goal10–26
NOQ3 0:31418Punt10–26
PHIQ4 14:07853Field goal10–29
NOQ4 10:11365Turnover10–29
PHIQ4 8:51945Field goal10–32
NOQ4 4:19213Turnover10–38
PHIQ4 3:4814Touchdown10–39
NOQ4 3:441480Touchdown17–39

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/4333521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram12574.80
Khiry Robinson5306.00
C.J. Spiller3103.30
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead6111410
Brandin Cooks591071
Benjamin Watson35361
Marques Colston35360
Mark Ingram23170
Michael Hoomanawanui2240
Khiry Robinson2220
Josh Hill0100
Brandon Coleman0100
C.J. Spiller34-80

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford32/4533322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray20834.21
Ryan Mathews8739.11
Darren Sproles5275.40
Sam Bradford133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Huff45781
Zach Ertz57600
Brent Celek33441
Jordan Matthews57440
DeMarco Murray78370
Riley Cooper38320
Ryan Mathews33230
Darren Sproles12100
Nelson Agholor1150
Miles Austin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

4.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.28