2024 · Week 3

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

15·12

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

49

Model margin

-3.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSaints
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.057
  • 45.2%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback-0.071
  • +0.056EPA / rush-0.036
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +6.20CPOE-3.67
  • 42.4%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.46Points / drive1.72
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17NO @ PHI20–10NO
2021 · W11NO @ PHI29–40PHI
2020 · W14NO @ PHI21–24PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ NO14–20NO
2018 · W11PHI @ NO7–48NO
2015 · W5NO @ PHI17–39PHI
2013 · playoffsNO @ PHI26–24NO
2012 · W9PHI @ NO13–28NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NO
NOQ1 15:001454Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 6:513-9Punt0–3
NOQ1 4:333-3Punt0–3
PHIQ1 2:51566Turnover0–3
NOQ2 14:4938Punt0–3
PHIQ2 13:541041Turnover0–3
NOQ2 7:21613Punt0–3
PHIQ2 3:551593Turnover on downs0–3
NOQ2 0:1000End of half0–3
PHIQ3 15:001147Turnover on downs0–3
NOQ3 8:43618Punt0–3
PHIQ3 5:10746Punt0–3
NOQ3 1:2949Turnover on downs0–3
PHIQ4 14:58482Touchdown7–3
NOQ4 13:17750Field goal7–6
PHIQ4 9:49634Missed field goal7–6
NOQ4 6:41965Touchdown7–12
PHIQ4 2:03664Touchdown15–12
NOQ4 1:0126Turnover15–12
PHIQ4 0:4800End of half15–12

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts29/3831101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley171478.62
Jalen Hurts8253.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert10111700
DeVonta Smith710790
Parris Campbell22130
Kenny Gainwell23120
Britain Covey11110
Saquon Barkley4490
Johnny Wilson1290
Jahan Dotson2380

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr14/2514211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara26873.30
Derek Carr231.50
Jamaal Williams1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave66861
Alvin Kamara33400
Mason Tipton23110
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1130
Foster Moreau1220
Jamaal Williams1300
Rashid Shaheed0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

6.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-3.13