Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
-3.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.057
- 45.2%Success rate40.6%
- +0.165EPA / dropback-0.071
- +0.056EPA / rush-0.036
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- +6.20CPOE-3.67
- 42.4%Third-down rate36.3%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.46Points / drive1.72
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 29/38 | 311 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 147 | 8.6 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 10 | 11 | 170 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Britain Covey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Johnny Wilson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 14/25 | 142 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 26 | 87 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 6 | 86 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.13