2018 · DIV

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

14·20

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -8.5

Total

52

Model margin

+3.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSaints
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.156
  • 46.2%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.284
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.011
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +5.11CPOE+5.42
  • 40.4%Third-down rate46.3%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.94
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3PHI @ NO15–12PHI
2022 · W17NO @ PHI20–10NO
2021 · W11NO @ PHI29–40PHI
2020 · W14NO @ PHI21–24PHI
2018 · W11PHI @ NO7–48NO
2015 · W5NO @ PHI17–39PHI
2013 · playoffsNO @ PHI26–24NO
2012 · W9PHI @ NO13–28NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NO
NOQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 14:46776Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 10:4130Punt7–0
PHIQ1 9:511075Touchdown14–0
NOQ1 4:37721Punt14–0
PHIQ1 0:29418Turnover14–0
NOQ2 13:351284Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 7:23419Punt14–7
NOQ2 4:33412Punt14–7
PHIQ2 1:51412Punt14–7
NOQ2 1:18677Field goal14–10
PHIQ2 0:0600End of half14–10
PHIQ3 15:0036Punt14–10
NOQ3 13:0921112Touchdown14–17
PHIQ3 1:40522Punt14–17
NOQ4 13:59762Field goal14–20
PHIQ4 10:2867Punt14–20
NOQ4 8:38941Missed field goal14–20
PHIQ4 2:58516Turnover14–20
NOQ4 1:52312End of half14–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles18/3120112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood10333.30
Nelson Agholor11212.00
Darren Sproles341.30
Nick Foles200.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery58630
Zach Ertz58500
Jordan Matthews12371
Darren Sproles34210
Golden Tate25180
Nelson Agholor1360
Wendell Smallwood1160

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/3830121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara16714.40
Mark Ingram9535.90
Taysom Hill284.00
Tre'Quan Smith155.00
Drew Brees300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas12161711
Ted Ginn37440
Alvin Kamara44350
Tre'Quan Smith11150
Benjamin Watson11120
Mark Ingram2290
Keith Kirkwood2281
Josh Hill3370
Taysom Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.33
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.40