Closing spread
NO -8.5
Total
52
Model margin
+3.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.156
- 46.2%Success rate49.9%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.284
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.011
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.2%
- +5.11CPOE+5.42
- 40.4%Third-down rate46.3%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.01Points / drive2.94
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 18/31 | 201 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/38 | 301 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 12 | 16 | 171 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.33
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.40