2013 · WC

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

26·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

55.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapEagles
  • +0.115EPA / play+0.100
  • 47.2%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.209EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.009
  • 9.5%Explosive rate13.5%
  • +5.36CPOE+2.43
  • 45.1%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 64.9%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.91
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3PHI @ NO15–12PHI
2022 · W17NO @ PHI20–10NO
2021 · W11NO @ PHI29–40PHI
2020 · W14NO @ PHI21–24PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ NO14–20NO
2018 · W11PHI @ NO7–48NO
2015 · W5NO @ PHI17–39PHI
2012 · W9PHI @ NO13–28NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–PHI
NOQ1 15:00222Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:5716Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:1838Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:13622Punt0–0
NOQ1 9:5037Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:2636Punt0–0
NOQ1 7:02431Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 4:511243Missed field goal0–0
NOQ2 14:221048Field goal3–0
PHIQ2 8:3737Punt3–0
NOQ2 7:21627Turnover3–0
PHIQ2 4:12644Touchdown3–7
NOQ2 1:48842Field goal6–7
PHIQ3 15:003-2Punt6–7
NOQ3 13:42763Touchdown13–7
PHIQ3 10:0836Punt13–7
NOQ3 8:46976Touchdown20–7
PHIQ3 3:54760Touchdown20–14
NOQ3 0:32412Punt20–14
PHIQ4 14:13633Field goal20–17
NOQ4 11:14658Field goal23–17
PHIQ4 8:04937Touchdown23–24
NOQ4 4:54934Field goal26–24

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees20/3025012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram18975.41
Khiry Robinson8455.60
Darren Sproles4297.30
Drew Brees5132.60
Kenny Stills111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham34440
Robert Meachem11400
Kenny Stills34350
Lance Moore24311
Darren Sproles47310
Benjamin Watson12270
Mark Ingram34170
Marques Colston22160
Josh Hill1190

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles23/3319520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy21773.71
Nick Foles133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Riley Cooper68681
DeSean Jackson36530
Zach Ertz34221
Jason Avant56210
Brent Celek23160
LeSean McCoy45150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.69