Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
55.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.115EPA / play+0.100
- 47.2%Success rate46.4%
- +0.209EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.009
- 9.5%Explosive rate13.5%
- +5.36CPOE+2.43
- 45.1%Third-down rate39.3%
- 64.9%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
- 2.21Points / drive1.91
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 20/30 | 250 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 18 | 97 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Khiry Robinson | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 23/33 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Cooper | 6 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 5 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.69