Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.096EPA / play-0.055
- 47.7%Success rate41.8%
- +0.140EPA / dropback-0.043
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.58CPOE-4.93
- 46.0%Third-down rate36.0%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 2.72Points / drive1.61
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 28/38 | 291 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 8 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/30 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 14 | 115 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 18 | 106 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+5.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.19