2020 · Week 14

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Taysom Hill

21·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NO -7.5

Total

43

Model margin

+3.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapEagles
  • +0.096EPA / play-0.055
  • 47.7%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback-0.043
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.081
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +2.58CPOE-4.93
  • 46.0%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 2.72Points / drive1.61
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3PHI @ NO15–12PHI
2022 · W17NO @ PHI20–10NO
2021 · W11NO @ PHI29–40PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ NO14–20NO
2018 · W11PHI @ NO7–48NO
2015 · W5NO @ PHI17–39PHI
2013 · playoffsNO @ PHI26–24NO
2012 · W9PHI @ NO13–28NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–PHI
NOQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:011449Turnover on downs0–0
NOQ1 4:50736Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 0:58765Touchdown0–7
NOQ2 13:25517Punt0–7
PHIQ2 10:43420Punt0–7
NOQ2 8:10319Turnover0–7
PHIQ2 6:5736Field goal0–10
NOQ2 6:05621Punt0–10
PHIQ2 2:13498Touchdown0–17
NOQ2 1:3535Punt0–17
PHIQ2 0:57664Missed field goal0–17
PHIQ3 15:0035Punt0–17
NOQ3 13:021065Touchdown7–17
PHIQ3 7:55935Turnover on downs7–17
NOQ3 3:03460Touchdown14–17
PHIQ3 1:40616Punt14–17
NOQ4 14:02948Turnover14–17
PHIQ4 9:49755Touchdown14–24
NOQ4 6:221036Missed field goal14–24
PHIQ4 1:5524Turnover14–24
NOQ4 1:42351Touchdown21–24
PHIQ4 1:2400End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taysom Hill28/3829121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara11504.51
Taysom Hill5336.60
Latavius Murray4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas88840
Tre'Quan Smith36600
Emmanuel Sanders35481
Alvin Kamara710440
Jared Cook34371
Adam Trautman11120
Juwan Johnson11110
Josh Hill1110
Latavius Murray11-60

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts17/3016710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders141158.22
Jalen Hurts181065.90
Jalen Reagor11919.00
Boston Scott362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Reagor24460
Dallas Goedert46430
Miles Sanders45210
Greg Ward25200
Alshon Jeffery11151
Boston Scott11110
Zach Ertz2380
Quez Watkins1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.19