Closing spread
NO -7
Total
56.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.156
- 46.2%Success rate49.9%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.284
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.011
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.2%
- +5.11CPOE+5.42
- 40.4%Third-down rate46.3%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.01Points / drive2.94
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 19/33 | 156 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Adams | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/30 | 363 | 4 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 103 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 71 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Quan Smith | 10 | 13 | 157 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 4 | 92 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52