2018 · Week 11

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

7·48

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

56.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSaints
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.156
  • 46.2%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.284
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.011
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +5.11CPOE+5.42
  • 40.4%Third-down rate46.3%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.94
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3PHI @ NO15–12PHI
2022 · W17NO @ PHI20–10NO
2021 · W11NO @ PHI29–40PHI
2020 · W14NO @ PHI21–24PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ NO14–20NO
2015 · W5NO @ PHI17–39PHI
2013 · playoffsNO @ PHI26–24NO
2012 · W9PHI @ NO13–28NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NO
PHIQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:24757Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 9:1036Punt0–3
NOQ1 8:041186Touchdown0–10
PHIQ1 3:1220Turnover0–10
NOQ1 2:391089Touchdown0–17
PHIQ2 12:07675Touchdown7–17
NOQ2 8:4230Punt7–17
PHIQ2 7:40619Punt7–17
NOQ2 3:19789Touchdown7–24
PHIQ2 0:3930End of half7–24
NOQ3 15:00670Touchdown7–31
PHIQ3 11:20516Turnover on downs7–31
NOQ3 9:56839Touchdown7–38
PHIQ3 5:34617Punt7–38
NOQ3 1:33787Touchdown7–45
PHIQ4 13:1549Turnover on downs7–45
NOQ4 11:48733Field goal7–48
PHIQ4 6:46514Turnover7–48
NOQ4 5:283-3Punt7–48
PHIQ4 3:07831Turnover7–48
NOQ4 0:3100End of half7–48

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz19/3315603

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Adams7537.61
Corey Clement2115.50
Carson Wentz166.00
Wendell Smallwood1-4-4.00
Golden Tate1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate58480
Jordan Matthews34370
Alshon Jeffery45330
Josh Adams36190
Zach Ertz23150
Corey Clement2240
Nelson Agholor0200
Dallas Goedert0300

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees22/3036340
Taysom Hill1/21000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram161036.42
Alvin Kamara13715.50
Taysom Hill341.30
Teddy Bridgewater1-1-1.00
Dwayne Washington3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre'Quan Smith10131571
Michael Thomas44921
Alvin Kamara11371
Keith Kirkwood35330
Josh Hill24260
Dan Arnold22250
Austin Carr1231
Taysom Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.74%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.52