2012 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

38·23

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DAL -1

Total

44

Model margin

+0.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.073
  • 47.2%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback-0.006
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.208
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +3.18CPOE+0.51
  • 43.3%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.18
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001171Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 9:531385Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 2:1336Punt7–7
DALQ1 0:3635Punt7–7
PHIQ2 14:48614Punt7–7
DALQ2 11:40823Punt7–7
PHIQ2 7:4135Punt7–7
DALQ2 6:00457Field goal10–7
PHIQ2 3:50415Punt10–7
DALQ2 2:24424Punt10–7
PHIQ2 0:4543Punt10–7
DALQ2 0:0900End of half10–7
DALQ3 15:003-4Punt10–7
PHIQ3 14:05567Touchdown10–14
DALQ3 12:5236Punt10–14
PHIQ3 10:421135Field goal10–17
DALQ3 4:32880Touchdown17–17
PHIQ4 15:0042Opp touchdown24–17
PHIQ4 13:35317Opp touchdown31–17
PHIQ4 12:25725Punt31–17
DALQ4 8:20415Punt31–17
PHIQ4 5:261177Touchdown31–23
DALQ4 1:5534Punt31–23
PHIQ4 0:531-6Opp touchdown38–23
PHIQ4 0:46438End of half38–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo19/2620920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones16714.40
Lance Dunbar6203.30
Tony Romo1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant35871
Jason Witten810470
Miles Austin24320
Felix Jones33221
Cole Beasley1130

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles22/3221911
Mike Vick6/97010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16825.10
Mike Vick372.30
Bryce Brown310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin812931
DeSean Jackson58620
Damaris Johnson11320
Brent Celek33310
Clay Harbor33250
Riley Cooper23241
LeSean McCoy45200
Jason Avant12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.86