Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
44
Model margin
+0.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.073
- 47.2%Success rate42.7%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.006
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.208
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.18CPOE+0.51
- 43.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.79Points / drive1.18
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/26 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 5 | 87 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 8 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 22/32 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 6/9 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 8 | 12 | 93 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.86