2012 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

24·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

46

Model margin

+3.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.011
  • 45.2%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.013
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -2.29CPOE-2.66
  • 41.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.91
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
DETQ1 15:00733Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:23772Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 7:5230Turnover0–7
MINQ1 7:383-5Field goal0–10
DETQ1 5:4133Punt0–10
MINQ1 4:103-6Punt0–10
DETQ1 2:541264Field goal3–10
MINQ2 11:071281Field goal3–13
DETQ2 4:41514Punt3–13
MINQ2 2:2833Punt3–13
DETQ2 1:443-8Punt3–13
MINQ2 1:2337Punt3–13
DETQ2 0:4829End of half3–13
MINQ3 15:00735Punt3–13
DETQ3 11:2834Punt3–13
MINQ3 10:04843Field goal3–16
DETQ3 5:11486Touchdown10–16
MINQ3 2:55862Touchdown10–24
DETQ4 14:15663Touchdown17–24
MINQ4 11:3238Punt17–24
DETQ4 9:5840Punt17–24
MINQ4 9:13280Touchdown17–31
DETQ4 8:06120Turnover17–31
MINQ4 7:52425Field goal17–34
DETQ4 4:361080Touchdown24–34
MINQ4 1:5331End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/4232931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mikel Leshoure13433.30
Matthew Stafford3134.30
Joique Bell144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson12132071
Joique Bell78440
Titus Young47351
Brandon Pettigrew39321
Ryan Broyles1160
Mikel Leshoure1350
Tony Scheffler0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder24/3222120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson271716.31
Christian Ponder6223.70
Jarius Wright133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarius Wright35651
Kyle Rudolph79641
Devin Aromashodu11310
Jerome Simpson34280
Toby Gerhart22150
Michael Jenkins23120
John Carlson11110
Adrian Peterson3450
Stephen Burton0100
Christian Ponder11-150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

6.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.31