Closing spread
DET -3
Total
46
Model margin
+3.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.011
- 45.2%Success rate42.1%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.013
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- -2.29CPOE-2.66
- 41.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.65Points / drive1.91
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/42 | 329 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Leshoure | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 12 | 13 | 207 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 7 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 4 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Ryan Broyles | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 24/32 | 221 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 27 | 171 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 7 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 1 | 1 | -15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
6.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.31