2012 · Week 10

Final / OT

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

13·16

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

PIT -12.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.132EPA / play-0.007
  • 40.7%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.172EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.168
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -3.02CPOE+0.59
  • 33.1%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 38.7%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 0.91Points / drive1.66
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–PIT
KCQ1 15:00511Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:04423Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:23470Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 8:3736Punt7–0
KCQ1 6:58729Punt7–0
PITQ1 3:05517Turnover7–0
KCQ1 1:0736Field goal10–0
PITQ2 14:201043Field goal10–3
KCQ2 9:0239Punt10–3
PITQ2 7:02750Touchdown10–10
KCQ2 3:16729Punt10–10
PITQ2 0:3413End of half10–10
PITQ3 15:0033Punt10–10
KCQ3 13:401255Missed field goal10–10
PITQ3 8:20711Turnover on downs10–10
KCQ3 5:1433Punt10–10
PITQ3 3:431237Field goal10–13
KCQ4 12:373-1Punt10–13
PITQ4 11:24417Punt10–13
KCQ4 9:1439Punt10–13
PITQ4 7:1735Punt10–13
KCQ4 5:4034Punt10–13
PITQ4 4:09634Punt10–13
KCQ4 1:51862Field goal13–13
KCOT24Turnover13–16
PITOT00Field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel11/2615401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles231004.31
Peyton Hillis10303.00
Matt Cassel2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Moeaki36680
Dwayne Bowe49550
Dexter McCluster25180
Jon Baldwin13110
Peyton Hillis1120
Terrance Copper0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger9/188410
Byron Leftwich7/147300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Dwyer19562.90
Isaac Redman8212.60
Ben Roethlisberger11414.00
Emmanuel Sanders144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Heath Miller44470
Emmanuel Sanders27300
Jerricho Cotchery14220
Isaac Redman23180
David Paulson22150
Mike Wallace38141
Will Johnson1370
Jonathan Dwyer1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+6.74