Closing spread
PIT -12.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.007
- 40.7%Success rate42.0%
- -0.172EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.168
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.02CPOE+0.59
- 33.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 38.7%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 0.91Points / drive1.66
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 11/26 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 23 | 100 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9/18 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 7/14 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath Miller | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 8 | 14 | 1 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.74