2012 · Week 11

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

28·6

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

41

Model margin

-2.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.002EPA / play-0.132
  • 41.6%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback-0.172
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.084
  • 6.6%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +1.17CPOE-3.02
  • 34.3%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
  • 1.71Points / drive0.91
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 9–6 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CIN @ KC25–26KC
2023 · W17CIN @ KC17–25KC
2022 · playoffsCIN @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W13KC @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ KC27–24CIN
2021 · W17KC @ CIN31–34CIN
2018 · W7CIN @ KC10–45KC
2015 · W4KC @ CIN21–36CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–KC
KCQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:31521Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:30759Field goal0–3
CINQ1 8:311183Touchdown7–3
KCQ1 2:5159Turnover7–3
CINQ1 0:4632Missed field goal7–3
KCQ2 14:2130Punt7–3
CINQ2 12:5236Punt7–3
KCQ2 11:213-3Punt7–3
CINQ2 10:05548Touchdown14–3
KCQ2 7:52416Punt14–3
CINQ2 6:181388Touchdown21–3
KCQ2 0:53560Field goal21–6
CINQ3 15:00731Punt21–6
KCQ3 11:58932Punt21–6
CINQ3 7:34742Punt21–6
KCQ3 3:14523Punt21–6
CINQ4 15:001272Touchdown28–6
KCQ4 9:39857Turnover on downs28–6
CINQ4 6:3839Punt28–6
KCQ4 4:1037Punt28–6
CINQ4 3:0037Punt28–6
KCQ4 1:04517End of half28–6

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/2923020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis251014.01
Cedric Peerman8759.40
Andy Dalton3134.31
Mohamed Sanu200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green612911
Jermaine Gresham68690
Brandon Tate12240
Mohamed Sanu24221
Brian Leonard11110
BenJarvus Green-Ellis1170
Ryan Whalen1160

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn9/149500
Matt Cassel8/169300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles17875.10
Shaun Draughn2105.00
Peyton Hillis393.00
Brady Quinn372.30
Matt Cassel100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Moeaki46730
Dexter McCluster33370
Terrance Copper34330
Jamaal Charles46310
Steve Breaston13130
Shaun Draughn2310
Dwayne Bowe0200
Devon Wylie0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.52