Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
41
Model margin
-2.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play-0.132
- 41.6%Success rate40.7%
- +0.019EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.084
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- +1.17CPOE-3.02
- 34.3%Third-down rate33.1%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
- 1.71Points / drive0.91
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/29 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 25 | 101 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 8 | 75 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 12 | 91 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Whalen | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 9/14 | 95 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 8/16 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Moeaki | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Wylie | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.52