2012 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

6·31

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

+8.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.137
  • 42.7%Success rate46.7%
  • -0.006EPA / dropback+0.233
  • -0.208EPA / rush+0.030
  • 8.8%Explosive rate12.8%
  • +0.51CPOE+4.84
  • 37.1%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 1.18Points / drive2.11
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
PHIQ1 15:0032Turnover0–0
WASQ1 13:5229Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 13:071150Turnover0–7
WASQ1 6:2134Punt0–7
PHIQ1 4:181171Field goal3–7
WASQ2 14:15685Touchdown3–14
PHIQ2 10:35626Punt3–14
WASQ2 7:2939Punt3–14
PHIQ2 5:26619Punt3–14
WASQ2 2:27529Punt3–14
PHIQ2 0:3611Turnover3–14
WASQ2 0:2722Field goal3–17
WASQ3 15:004-5Punt3–17
PHIQ3 12:32628Field goal6–17
WASQ3 8:27685Touchdown6–24
PHIQ3 4:5031Punt6–24
WASQ3 3:23841Turnover on downs6–24
PHIQ4 14:033-5Punt6–24
WASQ4 13:05665Touchdown6–31
PHIQ4 10:24912Punt6–31
WASQ4 7:38738Punt6–31
PHIQ4 3:381652Turnover on downs6–31
WASQ4 0:4100End of half6–31

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles21/4620402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy15453.00
Bryce Brown5357.00
Nick Foles100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy67670
Riley Cooper58610
Brent Celek58420
Damaris Johnson12210
DeSean Jackson2950
Jeremy Maclin0300
Clay Harbor16-10

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III14/1520040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Griffin III12847.00
Alfred Morris20763.80
Brandon Banks166.00
Evan Royster133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss11611
Aldrick Robinson11491
Leonard Hankerson22300
Josh Morgan34250
Logan Paulsen11171
Alfred Morris1170
Pierre Garcon3350
Brandon Banks1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%5.4%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.2%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.24
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+8.58