2012 · Week 11 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+8.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.137
- 42.7%Success rate46.7%
- -0.006EPA / dropback+0.233
- -0.208EPA / rush+0.030
- 8.8%Explosive rate12.8%
- +0.51CPOE+4.84
- 37.1%Third-down rate35.5%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 1.18Points / drive2.11
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 21/46 | 204 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 5 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 5 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 9 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 6 | -1 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 14/15 | 200 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 12 | 84 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 1 | 1 | 61 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 49 | 1 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.2%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.24
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+8.58