2009 · Week 1

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

38·10

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPanthers
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.058
  • 43.1%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback-0.092
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.022
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +0.05CPOE-3.62
  • 37.2%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.39
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. CAR are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CAR @ PHI25–14CAR
2024 · W14CAR @ PHI16–22PHI
2021 · W5PHI @ CAR21–18PHI
2018 · W7CAR @ PHI21–17CAR
2017 · W6PHI @ CAR28–23PHI
2015 · W7PHI @ CAR16–27CAR
2014 · W10CAR @ PHI21–45PHI
2012 · W12CAR @ PHI30–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CAR
CARQ1 15:001470Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 6:54632Punt0–7
CARQ1 3:3524Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 2:4136Field goal3–7
CARQ1 0:533-23Opp touchdown10–7
CARQ2 14:5268Opp touchdown17–7
CARQ2 10:5733Turnover23–7
PHIQ2 10:0119Touchdown24–7
CARQ2 9:553-1Punt24–7
PHIQ2 7:43862Touchdown24–7
PHIQ2 4:2210Touchdown24–7
PHIQ2 3:5927Touchdown31–7
CARQ2 3:16756Field goal31–10
PHIQ2 1:42633Punt31–10
CARQ2 0:2400End of half31–10
PHIQ3 15:00950Turnover31–10
CARQ3 9:403-8Turnover31–10
PHIQ3 8:21310Touchdown38–10
CARQ3 6:5910Turnover38–10
PHIQ3 6:43521Punt38–10
CARQ3 4:2467Punt38–10
PHIQ3 3:01615Turnover38–10
CARQ4 14:524-6Punt38–10
PHIQ4 13:4234Punt38–10
CARQ4 12:0023Turnover38–10
PHIQ4 11:28714Missed field goal38–10
CARQ4 7:4836Turnover38–10
PHIQ4 6:5045Turnover on downs38–10
CARQ4 4:171351Turnover on downs38–10
PHIQ4 0:3400End of half38–10

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb10/187921
Kevin Kolb7/112300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook13644.90
LeSean McCoy9465.10
DeSean Jackson23316.50
Donovan McNabb4276.81
Kevin Kolb341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek67371
Kevin Curtis24260
Jason Avant11180
DeSean Jackson2790
Brian Westbrook3481
Hank Baskett1260
LeSean McCoy1310

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme7/177304
Matt Moore6/116301
Josh McCown1/6200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams14372.61
Jonathan Stewart11353.20
Jake Delhomme294.50
Steve Smith144.00
Mike Goodson210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAngelo Williams45420
Muhsin Muhammad49410
Jonathan Stewart23320
Steve Smith313210
Jeff King1220
Dante Rosario0100
Kenny Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.44