Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.058
- 43.1%Success rate40.6%
- +0.086EPA / dropback-0.092
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.022
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.9%
- +0.05CPOE-3.62
- 37.2%Third-down rate37.2%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 2.04Points / drive1.39
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. CAR are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 10/18 | 79 | 2 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 7/11 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 6 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Kevin Curtis | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Hank Baskett | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 7/17 | 73 | 0 | 4 |
| Matt Moore | 6/11 | 63 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 1/6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 13 | 21 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.44