Closing spread
CHI -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.041
- 42.1%Success rate39.6%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.66CPOE-0.76
- 37.4%Third-down rate36.4%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.91Points / drive1.47
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 22/43 | 159 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 18 | 108 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 9 | 55 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 7 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/31 | 188 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bush | 21 | 60 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 12 | 17 | 92 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Evan Rodriguez | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+3.22