2012 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

10·28

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -6.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • +0.011EPA / play-0.041
  • 42.1%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.66CPOE-0.76
  • 37.4%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.47
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
MINQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:121-1Turnover0–0
MINQ1 13:0736Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 12:1731Punt3–0
MINQ1 10:1311Turnover3–0
CHIQ1 10:07634Touchdown3–7
MINQ1 7:1739Punt3–7
CHIQ1 5:45925Field goal3–10
MINQ1 0:32853Missed field goal3–10
CHIQ2 12:001556Touchdown3–18
MINQ2 4:01514Turnover3–24
CHIQ2 1:55113Touchdown3–25
MINQ2 1:4835Punt3–25
CHIQ2 1:21641Missed field goal3–25
CHIQ3 15:00531Turnover3–25
MINQ3 12:45525Touchdown10–25
CHIQ3 10:441151Field goal10–28
MINQ3 3:571572Turnover on downs10–28
CHIQ4 14:04423Punt10–28
MINQ4 10:413-2Punt10–28
CHIQ4 9:3032Punt10–28
MINQ4 8:23432Turnover10–28
CHIQ4 7:0538Punt10–28
MINQ4 5:141339Turnover on downs10–28
CHIQ4 2:28513End of half10–28

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder22/4315911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson181086.00
Christian Ponder263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph59551
Jarius Wright710490
Adrian Peterson67300
Michael Jenkins24170
John Carlson1270
Jerome Simpson1410
Devin Aromashodu0300
Stephen Burton0100
Rhett Ellison0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler23/3118811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bush21602.92
Matt Forte14423.00
Jay Cutler393.00
Armando Allen122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall1217920
Earl Bennett44450
Kellen Davis14150
Matt Spaeth11131
Evan Rodriguez11110
Eric Weems1190
Matt Forte2240
Michael Bush11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+3.22