Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
36
Model margin
-2.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutMario HagganLBElbow· DNP
- DoubtfulDanny AmendolaWRFoot· DNP
- QuestionableLance KendricksTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableRodney McLeodSCalf· DNP
- ProbableSteven JacksonRBFoot· Limited
Cardinals
- QuestionableCalais CampbellDECalf· Limited
- QuestionableEarly DoucetWRRibs· Limited
- QuestionableKevin KolbQBRibs· Limited
- QuestionableLaRod Stephens-HowlingRBRibs· Limited
- ProbableAlfonso SmithRBIllness· Full
- ProbableChris WellsRBToe· Full
- ProbableDaryn ColledgeGFoot· Full
- ProbableGregory TolerCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableJamell FlemingCBBack· Full
- ProbableJeff KingTEKnee· Full
- ProbableJustin BethelSShoulder· Full
- ProbableKerry RhodesSBack· Full
- ProbableMike LeachLSBack· Full
- ProbableTodd HeapTEKnee· Full
- ProbableWilliam GayCBGroin· Full
- ProbableWilliam PowellRBShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:36 | 16 | 96 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:41 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 0:24 | 2 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 13:21 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 11:13 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 7:52 | 7 | 63 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q2 4:36 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 3:32 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 1:53 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LA | Q3 11:11 | 3 | 92 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| ARI | Q3 9:58 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| LA | Q3 8:24 | 4 | 5 | Missed field goal | 21–17 |
| ARI | Q3 5:53 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 21–17 |
| LA | Q3 4:23 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 27–17 |
| ARI | Q3 2:39 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 28–17 |
| ARI | Q3 2:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 28–17 |
| LA | Q3 0:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 28–17 |
| ARI | Q4 13:30 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 28–17 |
| LA | Q4 12:26 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 31–17 |
| ARI | Q4 5:27 | 10 | 56 | Turnover | 31–17 |
| LA | Q4 2:49 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 31–17 |
| ARI | Q4 2:19 | 8 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 31–17 |
| LA | Q4 0:44 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lindley | 31/52 | 312 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| William Powell | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Lindley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 9 | 13 | 92 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 8 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| William Powell | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 12 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LaRon Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.