Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
36
Model margin
-2.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lindley | 31/52 | 312 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| William Powell | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Lindley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 9 | 13 | 92 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 8 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| William Powell | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 12 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LaRon Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.