2012 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

19·24

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.093EPA / play-0.115
  • 38.0%Success rate40.0%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback-0.106
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -2.87CPOE-5.09
  • 38.2%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.29Points / drive0.96
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
TENQ1 14:5538Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 13:32843Punt3–0
TENQ1 9:0037Punt3–0
JAXQ1 7:311275Touchdown3–7
TENQ1 0:121158Missed field goal3–7
JAXQ2 9:31513Punt3–7
TENQ2 6:40942Punt3–7
JAXQ2 1:47636Turnover on downs3–7
TENQ2 0:47533Field goal6–7
JAXQ2 0:1100End of half6–7
TENQ3 15:0064Punt6–7
JAXQ3 11:39775Touchdown6–14
TENQ3 8:401259Field goal9–14
JAXQ3 3:263-3Punt9–14
TENQ3 1:4930Punt9–14
JAXQ4 14:50412Punt9–14
TENQ4 12:56972Field goal12–14
JAXQ4 10:05960Touchdown12–21
TENQ4 6:50678Touchdown19–21
JAXQ4 4:523-2Punt19–21
TENQ4 3:2820Turnover19–21
JAXQ4 2:40513Field goal19–24
TENQ4 0:242-1Turnover19–24

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker23/4026112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson21803.80
Jake Locker5214.20
Darius Reynaud252.50
Kendall Wright144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington49540
Kendall Wright58480
Jared Cook68470
Damian Williams24460
Chris Johnson23290
Kenny Britt35251
Craig Stevens11120
Darius Reynaud0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne17/2626121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Parmele8455.60
Rashad Jennings16432.71
Justin Blackmon11212.00
Chad Henne200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts471051
Justin Blackmon56621
Marcedes Lewis46560
Jordan Shipley11240
Jalen Parmele1170
Rashad Jennings1120
Micheal Spurlock0100
Kevin Elliott0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.96