Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.115
- 38.0%Success rate40.0%
- -0.054EPA / dropback-0.106
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- -2.87CPOE-5.09
- 38.2%Third-down rate28.8%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.29Points / drive0.96
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 23/40 | 261 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 21 | 80 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 6 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 17/26 | 261 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Parmele | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 16 | 43 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Justin Blackmon | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 4 | 7 | 105 | 1 |
| Justin Blackmon | 5 | 6 | 62 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Elliott | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.96