2012 · Week 12 · Division
Final
Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play+0.043
- 46.7%Success rate47.2%
- +0.233EPA / dropback+0.127
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.133
- 12.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- +4.84CPOE+3.18
- 35.5%Third-down rate43.3%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 2.11Points / drive1.79
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 19/27 | 304 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 24 | 113 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 6 | 86 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 68 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 29 | 1 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 37/62 | 441 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 8 | 11 | 145 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 9 | 15 | 74 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 4 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 7 | 13 | 68 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
48.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.26