2012 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

38·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

-0.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.137EPA / play+0.043
  • 46.7%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.233EPA / dropback+0.127
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.133
  • 12.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +4.84CPOE+3.18
  • 35.5%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.79
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
WASQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:57928Field goal0–3
WASQ1 9:17726Punt0–3
DALQ1 5:30633Punt0–3
WASQ1 1:44598Touchdown7–3
DALQ2 13:47633Turnover7–3
WASQ2 10:37744Touchdown14–3
DALQ2 7:0035Punt14–3
WASQ2 5:15571Touchdown21–3
DALQ2 2:14626Turnover21–3
WASQ2 0:30433Touchdown28–3
DALQ2 0:0500End of half28–3
DALQ3 15:00970Field goal28–6
WASQ3 11:4839Punt28–6
DALQ3 9:183-3Punt28–6
WASQ3 8:17614Punt28–6
DALQ3 5:23830Turnover28–6
WASQ3 2:5734Punt28–12
DALQ3 1:38185Touchdown28–13
WASQ3 1:24782Touchdown35–13
DALQ4 12:48888Touchdown35–21
WASQ4 9:5422Turnover35–21
DALQ4 8:59418Touchdown35–28
WASQ4 8:181055Field goal38–28
DALQ4 2:581146Field goal38–31
WASQ4 0:1800End of half38–31

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III19/2730441

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris241134.71
Robert Griffin III7294.10
Pierre Garcon177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon46861
Aldrick Robinson11681
Josh Morgan56480
Santana Moss45421
Niles Paul11291
Leonard Hankerson12120
Logan Paulsen23110
Brandon Banks1180

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo37/6244132

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones6142.30
Lance Dunbar188.00
Tony Romo372.30
Dez Bryant166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant8111452
Jason Witten915740
Dwayne Harris47710
Cole Beasley713680
Felix Jones34471
Lance Dunbar36210
Andre Holmes1140
Miles Austin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

48.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.26