2012 · Week 13 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
NYG -2.5
Total
50
Model margin
+4.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.137
- 46.8%Success rate46.7%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.233
- -0.000EPA / rush+0.030
- 10.8%Explosive rate12.8%
- +0.81CPOE+4.84
- 41.8%Third-down rate35.5%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 2.27Points / drive2.11
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/33 | 280 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 24 | 103 | 4.3 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 8 | 104 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 7 | 82 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 13/21 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 22 | 124 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 5 | 72 | 14.4 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 8 | 11 | 106 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.22