2012 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

16·17

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

NYG -2.5

Total

50

Model margin

+4.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.086EPA / play+0.137
  • 46.8%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.233
  • -0.000EPA / rush+0.030
  • 10.8%Explosive rate12.8%
  • +0.81CPOE+4.84
  • 41.8%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 2.27Points / drive2.11
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
WASQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:541074Field goal3–0
WASQ1 6:22464Touchdown3–7
NYGQ1 4:161261Missed field goal3–7
WASQ2 13:20624Punt3–7
NYGQ2 9:551584Touchdown10–7
WASQ2 2:32551Field goal10–10
NYGQ2 0:41554Field goal13–10
NYGQ3 15:00831Punt13–10
WASQ3 10:13673Turnover13–10
NYGQ3 6:45775Field goal16–10
WASQ3 3:091286Touchdown16–17
NYGQ4 11:313-1Punt16–17
WASQ4 9:28712Punt16–17
NYGQ4 6:06612Punt16–17
WASQ4 3:51744End of half16–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/3328010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw241034.30
David Wilson492.30
Eli Manning155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz581040
Martellus Bennett57821
Hakeem Nicks510430
Bear Pascoe11160
Ahmad Bradshaw22130
Rueben Randle12130
Jerrel Jernigan1190
Kregg Lumpkin0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III13/2116310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris221245.60
Robert Griffin III57214.40
Evan Royster133.00
Santana Moss100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon8111061
Josh Morgan24170
Leonard Hankerson11140
Logan Paulsen13110
Niles Paul0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.22