2012 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

33·38

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -10.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.043
  • 42.7%Success rate47.2%
  • -0.006EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.51CPOE+3.18
  • 37.1%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.79
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
PHIQ1 15:00931Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:29415Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:13566Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 5:381669Field goal7–3
PHIQ2 13:34418Punt7–3
DALQ2 11:5035Punt7–3
PHIQ2 9:54773Touchdown14–3
DALQ2 6:071293Touchdown14–10
PHIQ2 0:41558Field goal17–10
DALQ3 15:00780Touchdown17–17
PHIQ3 11:181180Touchdown24–17
DALQ3 5:271280Touchdown24–24
PHIQ4 13:41954Field goal27–24
DALQ4 9:51786Touchdown27–31
PHIQ4 5:35528Opp touchdown27–38
PHIQ4 3:50715Turnover on downs27–38
DALQ4 1:523-10Opp touchdown33–38
DALQ4 0:3100End of half33–38

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles22/3425110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bryce Brown241697.02
Dion Lewis2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Avant45790
Brent Celek78730
Jeremy Maclin35380
Riley Cooper25311
Bryce Brown45140
Damaris Johnson11130
Clay Harbor1230

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/2730330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray23833.61
Felix Jones7263.70
Tony Romo3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten681080
Dez Bryant66982
Miles Austin22461
DeMarco Murray44190
Cole Beasley12130
Dwayne Harris11110
Kevin Ogletree1280
Felix Jones0100
John Phillips1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.24
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+5.60