Closing spread
DAL -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.043
- 42.7%Success rate47.2%
- -0.006EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.51CPOE+3.18
- 37.1%Third-down rate43.3%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.18Points / drive1.79
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 22/34 | 251 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Brown | 24 | 169 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 4 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 7 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/27 | 303 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 6 | 8 | 108 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 6 | 98 | 2 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 2 | 46 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.24
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+5.60