Closing spread
SEA -10.5
Total
36
Model margin
+8.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.259EPA / play+0.109
- 35.1%Success rate45.2%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.005
- 6.0%Explosive rate11.2%
- -8.47CPOE+5.50
- 25.9%Third-down rate39.8%
- 36.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 0.79Points / drive2.17
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 11/22 | 74 | 0 | 4 |
| Ryan Lindley | 8/17 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Powell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Lindley | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 7 | 10 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| William Powell | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 7/13 | 148 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Flynn | 5/9 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 11 | 128 | 11.6 | 3 |
| Robert Turbin | 20 | 108 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony McCoy | 3 | 3 | 105 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.2%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.58