2012 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

0·58

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -10.5

Total

36

Model margin

+8.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.259EPA / play+0.109
  • 35.1%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.005
  • 6.0%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -8.47CPOE+5.50
  • 25.9%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 36.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 0.79Points / drive2.17
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:00541Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 12:0031Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 9:59512Punt0–3
SEAQ1 8:1813102Touchdown0–10
ARIQ1 2:0431Punt0–10
SEAQ1 1:04373Touchdown0–17
ARIQ2 14:53613Turnover0–17
SEAQ2 11:2535Punt0–17
ARIQ2 10:2010Opp touchdown0–24
ARIQ2 10:1234Punt0–24
SEAQ2 8:4039Touchdown0–31
ARIQ2 6:31519Punt0–31
SEAQ2 3:5510Turnover0–31
ARIQ2 3:4234Turnover0–31
SEAQ2 2:33424Punt0–31
SEAQ2 0:19224Touchdown0–38
ARIQ2 0:0600End of half0–38
SEAQ3 15:00786Touchdown0–45
ARIQ3 11:0825Turnover0–45
SEAQ3 10:19515Field goal0–48
ARIQ3 7:43614Turnover0–48
SEAQ3 4:49526Field goal0–51
ARIQ3 2:06623Punt0–51
SEAQ4 14:081363Turnover on downs0–51
ARIQ4 7:1347Punt0–51
SEAQ4 5:23667Touchdown0–58
ARIQ4 2:321011Turnover on downs0–58
SEAQ4 0:1000End of half0–58

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton11/227404
Ryan Lindley8/175900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Powell5204.00
Chris Wells6183.00
LaRod Stephens-Howling252.50
John Skelton221.00
Ryan Lindley1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Roberts35360
Rob Housler710360
Michael Floyd25300
William Powell23130
Early Doucet2270
Larry Fitzgerald11120
LaRod Stephens-Howling1120

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson7/1314811
Matt Flynn5/96800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch1112811.63
Robert Turbin201085.40
Leon Washington7385.41
Russell Wilson3124.00
Matt Flynn1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony McCoy331050
Sidney Rice25350
Zach Miller23291
Doug Baldwin24290
Golden Tate2360
Marshawn Lynch0100
Jermaine Kearse0100
Robert Turbin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.4%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.2%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.58