Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.011
- 39.6%Success rate42.1%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.013
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.76CPOE-2.66
- 36.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.47Points / drive1.91
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 22/44 | 260 | 1 | 2 |
| Jason Campbell | 6/9 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 13 | 85 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 10 | 20 | 160 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Kyle Adams | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 11/17 | 91 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 31 | 154 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.12