2012 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

14·21

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.011
  • 39.6%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.013
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -0.76CPOE-2.66
  • 36.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.91
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:00680Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 11:53516Turnover0–7
MINQ1 9:4935Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 8:42615Punt0–14
MINQ1 5:4940Punt0–14
CHIQ1 3:20619Punt0–14
MINQ1 1:02534Punt0–14
CHIQ2 13:44763Punt0–14
MINQ2 9:31844Punt0–14
CHIQ2 5:33856Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 1:52411Turnover7–14
CHIQ2 0:32228End of half7–14
CHIQ3 15:00841Punt7–14
MINQ3 10:52513Punt7–14
CHIQ3 8:2832Punt7–14
MINQ3 7:30414Punt7–14
CHIQ3 4:5538Opp touchdown7–21
CHIQ3 3:27546Punt7–21
MINQ3 0:481243Punt7–21
CHIQ4 9:131472Turnover on downs7–21
MINQ4 4:2737Punt7–21
CHIQ4 3:501172Touchdown14–21
MINQ4 1:4800End of half14–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler22/4426012
Jason Campbell6/96410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte13856.50
Jay Cutler2168.00
Jason Campbell188.00
Michael Bush166.00
Armando Allen133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall10201601
Alshon Jeffery36571
Devin Hester58390
Matt Forte67340
Kellen Davis38250
Kyle Adams1390

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder11/179101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson311545.02
Toby Gerhart3175.70
Christian Ponder400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Jenkins45360
Jarius Wright24290
Adrian Peterson22160
Jerome Simpson11130
Devin Aromashodu0100
Kyle Rudolph0200
Toby Gerhart11-10
Rhett Ellison11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.12