Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
52.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.094EPA / play+0.086
- 47.2%Success rate46.8%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.000
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.8%
- +0.89CPOE+0.81
- 43.1%Third-down rate41.8%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 2.17Points / drive2.27
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NYG are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/43 | 354 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Morgan | 2 | 2 | 106 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 22/35 | 259 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Wilson | 13 | 100 | 7.7 | 2 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 8 | 9 | 121 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 8 | 32 | 1 |
| Domenik Hixon | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
48.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+2.03