2012 · Week 14

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

27·52

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

NYG -4

Total

52.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapGiants
  • +0.094EPA / play+0.086
  • 47.2%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.160EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.000
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +0.89CPOE+0.81
  • 43.1%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 73.6%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 2.17Points / drive2.27
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NYG are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00312Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:23336Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 12:32516Opp touchdown7–6
NYGQ1 9:3800Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 9:25527Turnover7–7
NYGQ1 6:43623Touchdown7–14
NOQ1 4:19617Punt7–14
NYGQ1 1:5840Punt7–14
NOQ1 0:301381Field goal10–14
NYGQ2 9:46829Missed field goal10–14
NOQ2 6:03767Field goal13–14
NYGQ2 1:571179Touchdown13–21
NOQ2 0:2000End of half13–21
NOQ3 15:0010Turnover13–21
NYGQ3 14:44420Touchdown13–28
NOQ3 13:0436Punt13–28
NYGQ3 11:22662Touchdown13–35
NOQ3 8:13375Touchdown20–35
NYGQ3 7:21542Turnover20–35
NOQ3 5:00668Touchdown27–35
NYGQ3 1:51525Touchdown27–42
NOQ4 14:20645Turnover27–42
NYGQ4 11:5032Field goal27–45
NOQ4 10:1933Punt27–45
NYGQ4 9:11635Punt27–45
NOQ4 6:103-9Punt27–51
NYGQ4 5:20152Touchdown27–52
NOQ4 5:101272Turnover on downs27–52
NYGQ4 1:2300End of half27–52

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/4335412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram13685.20
Darren Sproles55611.21
Pierre Thomas5193.80
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joseph Morgan221060
Marques Colston44610
Pierre Thomas78570
Jimmy Graham510560
Darren Sproles47281
Lance Moore14260
Devery Henderson14110

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning22/3525942

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Wilson131007.72
Ahmad Bradshaw11333.00
Eli Manning2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz891211
Hakeem Nicks46671
Martellus Bennett58321
Domenik Hixon34301
Ahmad Bradshaw0100
Ramses Barden0100
Jerrel Jernigan0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

48.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+2.03