Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play-0.115
- 41.7%Success rate40.0%
- -0.139EPA / dropback-0.106
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.39CPOE-5.09
- 36.9%Third-down rate28.8%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.20Points / drive0.96
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 12/19 | 111 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 19 | 78 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 20 | 77 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Chaz Schilens | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Mardy Gilyard | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 21/43 | 185 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montell Owens | 14 | 91 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Richard Murphy | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Blackmon | 6 | 12 | 57 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Kevin Elliott | 3 | 10 | 38 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Toney Clemons | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.42