2012 · Week 14

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

17·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.101EPA / play-0.115
  • 41.7%Success rate40.0%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback-0.106
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.134
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -5.39CPOE-5.09
  • 36.9%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 47.4%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.20Points / drive0.96
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–JAX
NYJQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:521456Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 4:38620Punt0–0
JAXQ1 1:36420Punt0–0
NYJQ2 14:471020Turnover0–0
JAXQ2 10:42644Field goal0–3
NYJQ2 6:44538Turnover0–3
JAXQ2 4:17416Punt0–3
NYJQ2 2:4332Punt0–3
JAXQ2 2:1730Punt0–3
NYJQ2 1:4935Punt0–3
JAXQ2 0:1227Missed field goal0–3
JAXQ3 15:0039Punt0–3
NYJQ3 13:56957Touchdown7–3
JAXQ3 9:1138Punt7–3
NYJQ3 7:2737Punt7–3
JAXQ3 5:453-8Punt7–3
NYJQ3 4:58521Field goal10–3
JAXQ3 2:533-3Punt10–3
NYJQ3 1:19746Touchdown17–3
JAXQ4 12:201281Touchdown17–10
NYJQ4 7:0635Punt17–10
JAXQ4 5:0534Punt17–10
NYJQ4 3:42641Punt17–10
JAXQ4 1:431157Turnover17–10
NYJQ4 0:1500End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez12/1911100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell19784.11
Shonn Greene20773.91
Mark Sanchez3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeff Cumberland12370
Chaz Schilens23270
Jeremy Kerley46270
Mardy Gilyard23150
Konrad Reuland2270
Stephen Hill0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne21/4318502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montell Owens14916.51
Richard Murphy4194.80
Jordan Todman382.70
Chad Henne111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Blackmon612570
Jordan Shipley57550
Kevin Elliott310380
Montell Owens11110
Marcedes Lewis1440
Zach Potter1220
Jordan Todman1100
Toney Clemons0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.42