Closing spread
DET -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.259
- 45.2%Success rate35.1%
- +0.056EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.242
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.0%
- -2.29CPOE-8.47
- 41.4%Third-down rate25.9%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
- 1.65Points / drive0.79
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/50 | 246 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Leshoure | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 10 | 17 | 121 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lindley | 14/21 | 104 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 3 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Lindley | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| William Powell | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.31