2012 · Week 15

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

10·38

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Ryan Lindley

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DET -5.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.259
  • 45.2%Success rate35.1%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.242
  • 8.6%Explosive rate6.0%
  • -2.29CPOE-8.47
  • 41.4%Third-down rate25.9%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
  • 1.65Points / drive0.79
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00957Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:5637Punt0–0
ARIQ1 8:5910Turnover0–0
DETQ1 8:5132Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:4839Punt0–0
DETQ1 5:3830Punt0–0
ARIQ1 4:3334Punt0–0
DETQ1 2:551268Touchdown7–0
ARIQ2 12:51725Punt7–6
ARIQ2 9:2915Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 9:18727Punt7–7
ARIQ2 6:2548Punt7–7
DETQ2 4:1010Turnover7–7
ARIQ2 3:5723Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 3:16928Opp touchdown7–21
DETQ2 0:30111End of half7–21
DETQ3 15:0038Punt7–21
ARIQ3 12:47730Field goal7–24
DETQ3 9:191057Field goal10–24
ARIQ3 4:11616Punt10–24
DETQ3 1:0537Punt10–24
ARIQ4 14:4530Punt10–24
DETQ4 12:343-3Punt10–24
ARIQ4 11:3039Punt10–24
DETQ4 9:26988Opp touchdown10–31
DETQ4 5:0769Turnover on downs10–31
ARIQ4 3:52229Touchdown10–38
DETQ4 3:393-2Punt10–38
ARIQ4 2:2731Punt10–38
DETQ4 0:1215End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/5024603

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mikel Leshoure14553.91
Joique Bell7243.40
Mike Thomas155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson10171210
Tony Scheffler37360
Will Heller23180
Stefan Logan23180
Kris Durham15140
Kevin Smith12130
Joique Bell24130
Brian Robiskie1390
Mikel Leshoure2340

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Lindley14/2110401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells17673.93
LaRod Stephens-Howling5204.00
Ryan Lindley284.00
William Powell540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd35370
Larry Fitzgerald45220
Andre Roberts35220
Rob Housler22130
Jeff King1370
LaRod Stephens-Howling1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

40.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.79
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.31