Closing spread
OAK -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
+8.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 18/32 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamar Newsome | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Devon Wylie | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.45
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+8.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.