Closing spread
OAK -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
+8.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutDwayne BoweWRRibs· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulAbram ElamSQuadricep· DNP
- DoubtfulRuss HochsteinGBack· DNP
- QuestionableBranden AlbertTBack· Limited
- QuestionableJon AsamoahGThumb· Limited
- QuestionableRyan LiljaGKnee· Full
- ProbableBrandon FlowersCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableCyrus GrayRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDerrick JohnsonLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableEric BerrySHand· Full
- ProbableKendrick LewisSShoulder· Full
Raiders
- QuestionableRichard SeymourDTHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableTyvon BranchSNeck· Limited
- DNPChristo BilukidiDTIllness
- ProbableKhalif BarnesTTriceps· Limited
- ProbableDarren McFaddenRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableJack CrawfordDEToe· Full
- ProbableMichael HuffCBWrist· Full
- ProbableMichael MitchellSNeck· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:34 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:43 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 9:03 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:36 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 1:44 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q2 14:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q2 13:17 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LV | Q2 12:05 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| KC | Q2 10:19 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q2 7:29 | 12 | 52 | Missed field goal | 0–6 |
| KC | Q2 1:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q2 0:56 | 6 | 52 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LV | Q3 14:06 | 12 | 81 | Field goal | 0–12 |
| KC | Q3 6:41 | 11 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 0–12 |
| LV | Q3 2:31 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 0–15 |
| KC | Q4 13:27 | 7 | 46 | Punt | 0–15 |
| LV | Q4 10:29 | 1 | 2 | Turnover | 0–15 |
| KC | Q4 10:20 | 5 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 0–15 |
| LV | Q4 9:26 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–15 |
| KC | Q4 4:51 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–15 |
| LV | Q4 3:48 | 6 | 13 | End of half | 0–15 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 18/32 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamar Newsome | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Devon Wylie | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.45
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+8.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.