Closing spread
MIN -10
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/24 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3/3 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Bernard Berrian | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.