Closing spread
MIN -10
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Vikings
- OutDarius ReynaudWRNot Injury Related· DNP
- QuestionableErin HendersonLBCalf· Limited
- QuestionablePhil LoadholtTAnkle· Limited
- ProbableBrett FavreQBFoot· Limited
- ProbableSteve HutchinsonGBack· Limited
- ProbableCedric GriffinCBHand· Full
- ProbableRay EdwardsDEHamstring· Full
Rams
- OutJames ButlerSKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulAnthony SmithSAchilles· DNP
- DoubtfulRuvell MartinWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableDonnie AveryWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJason SmithTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableKeenan BurtonWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMarc BulgerQBright Shoulder· Limited
- ProbableCraig DahlSConcussion· Full
- ProbableRon BartellCBThigh· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:17 | 5 | 32 | Opp touchdown | 14–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:00 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 14–0 |
| MIN | Q1 6:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LA | Q1 4:27 | 15 | 85 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| MIN | Q2 11:48 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:37 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| MIN | Q2 7:38 | 4 | 27 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| LA | Q2 5:34 | 9 | 67 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| MIN | Q2 1:51 | 5 | 31 | End of half | 17–3 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–3 |
| MIN | Q3 12:59 | 7 | 90 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| LA | Q3 9:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–3 |
| MIN | Q3 7:36 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–3 |
| LA | Q3 5:59 | 15 | 57 | Turnover | 24–3 |
| MIN | Q4 14:49 | 10 | 46 | Touchdown | 31–3 |
| LA | Q4 10:01 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 31–10 |
| MIN | Q4 6:45 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 38–10 |
| LA | Q4 1:55 | 5 | 59 | End of half | 38–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/24 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3/3 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Bernard Berrian | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.